Try making some “chicken money” with your bonus…retail investors’ excitement erupts over these names [Jin Young-gi’s Real Ant, Real Investing]

Kbank, AXBIS and ESTEEM line up after the Lunar New Year holidays

IPO market also gets a tailwind amid a stock-market rally

Brokerages: “2026 will be a bumper year for IPOs”

The IPO market, which had been quiet for some time, is expected to heat up again as subscription for new offerings gets underway in earnest, led by this year’s first large-cap KOSPI deal, Kbank. With newly listed stocks continuing to trend higher, attention is on whether retail investors can succeed in making “chicken money.”

Kbank: retail subscription on the 20th and 23rd

According to the financial investment industry on the 14th, Kbank will take IPO subscriptions on the 20th and 23rd, after the Lunar New Year holidays. AXBIS and ESTEEM, which are seeking KOSDAQ listings, will also open IPO subscriptions for retail investors on the 23rd–24th, respectively. Kbank can be subscribed through NH Investment & Securities, Samsung Securities and Shinhan Securities. AXBIS is led by Mirae Asset Securities, while ESTEEM is managed by Korea Investment & Securities.

IPO investing is often dubbed “making chicken money.” The idea is that, compared with institutions, individuals have limited buying power and receive only small allocations even if they subscribe, but by selling right after listing they have a high chance of earning profits roughly equivalent to the price of a fried chicken meal. IPO shares are also popular with retail investors because they can rise to as much as three times the offering price on the first trading day.

According to Shinyoung Securities, among 77 companies newly listed on the domestic market last year (excluding SPACs), the average opening price on the first day of trading was 90.6% above the offering price. There were 30 names whose opening price was more than double the offering price. Only seven of the 77 opened below the offering price.

Last year, names such as Algenomics, AimedBio, Curiosis, Innotech and Winners achieved “ttattabl,” meaning quadrupling relative to the offering price on listing day. Deokyang Energen, the first company to list on the KOSDAQ this year, also finished its first session at 34,850 won, up 248.5% from the offering price.

A buoyant stock market is also cited as a positive. On the 2nd, investor deposits hit a record high of 111.2965 trillion won. As of the 11th, deposits also remained above 98 trillion won—up by roughly 10 trillion won from the end of last year (87.8291 trillion won). Investor deposits refer to cash investors keep in brokerage accounts to buy shares or funds not withdrawn after selling shares, and are seen as one source of “waiting” money preparing to enter the market.

Against this backdrop, the market’s attention is on Kbank, which fires the opening shot for KOSPI IPOs this year. Kbank’s offering price is 8,300 won per share, the bottom end of its previously indicated price range (8,300–9,500 won). Based on the final offering price, its price-to-book ratio (PBR) is 1.38x, lower than that of peer KakaoBank (2.03x). This is why assessments are emerging that the chances of a successful deal have improved.

The lead managers said, “Overall, the evaluation of the company’s value was very positive, with a significant number of institutions participating in the bookbuilding presenting prices including the top end of the offering band,” adding, “However, we set the offering price at a market-friendly level after comprehensively considering post-listing share price performance, market stability and protection of retail investors.” According to Kbank’s prospectus, of 2,007 institutions that participated in the bookbuilding, 770 (38.4%) offered prices at or above the top end of the indicated band, while 1,174 (58.5%) offered the bottom end (8,300 won).

IPO investing requires separating the winners from the losers

Still, not all newly listed stocks rise, so investors need to separate the winners from the losers. Even last year, when the IPO market was strong, Day1 Company (-40%), Igenet (-37.8%) and Wisenut (-36.5%) fell well below their offering prices on the first trading day.

In addition, as the subscription periods for AXBIS and ESTEEM overlap with Kbank’s, investors will need to pick and choose. To receive as many IPO shares as possible, they must pay in more subscription funds. The first things to consider are a company’s fundamentals and competitiveness in its core business.

AXBIS is a specialist in laser processing solutions used in advanced product manufacturing processes. Cumulative sales through the third quarter of last year were 35.1 billion won, with operating profit of 4.3 billion won. Fashion content company ESTEEM also runs a model-focused management business. Jang Yoon-ju and Han Hye-jin, among others, are part of ESTEEM. On a cumulative basis through the third quarter last year, revenue was 26.1 billion won and operating profit was 1.8 billion won.

Investors should also watch for lock-up commitments and the free float on the listing day. If the lock-up ratio is low and tradable shares increase, a large volume of stock could hit the market immediately after listing. Kbank’s estimated tradable stake on listing day is 36.35%—higher than recently listed KOSPI large deals such as LG CNS (19%), HD Hyundai Marine Solution (12.9%) and Ecopro Materials (15.2%). AXBIS’s listing-day free float is expected to be 33.05%, and ESTEEM’s 34.69%.

Choi Jong-kyung, an analyst at Heungkuk Securities, said, “Supported by the five-year cycle’s peak-phase trend and beneficiaries from the ‘5,000 KOSPI’ era, I believe the IPO market in 2026 has entered a ‘bumper-harvest’ period,” adding, “In a bumper year, Kbank—the first KOSPI listing of the year—could determine the direction of the IPO market going forward.”

Jin Young-gi, Hankyung.com reporter young71@hankyung.com