"Bitcoin has an 88% chance of rising within 10 months"…Prospects of a year-end rebound raised

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to be higher than its current price by year-end, citing that half of its monthly returns over the past two years were positive.

According to Cointelegraph on the 21st (local time), economist Timothy Peterson said, "50% of the past 24 months closed higher," adding, "Based on this, there is an 88% probability that Bitcoin will be higher than it is now in 10 months." He explained that he uses a method that tallies the number of positive (+) months in a 24-month window to gauge the likelihood of a trend reversal.

According to CoinGlass data, in 2025 Bitcoin posted gains in January, April, May, June, July and September, while the remaining six months ended lower. Bitcoin is currently trading around $68,000, about 25% below its level at the start of the year.

However, market views are mixed. On the crypto prediction platform Polymarket, the probability that December 2026 will record the strongest gain of the year is seen at 17%, with November slightly higher at 18%. Historically, since 2013, November has been the strongest month, with an average return of 41.13%.

Opinions also diverge on the short-term outlook. Michael van de Poppe of MN Trading Capital projected that "Bitcoin is likely to rebound next week," while veteran trader Peter Brandt warned that "the true bottom may not appear until October 2026."

Market sentiment remains subdued. The Fear & Greed Index stands at 9, staying in the "extreme fear" zone. Santiment, however, interpreted the recent decline in excessive price predictions on social media as a "healthy signal of a return to neutrality."