XRP plunges 30% in a month… odds of falling below $1 jump to the 70% range

XRP has slid nearly 30% over the past month and is now stuck in a box range in the low-to-mid $1 area. The prevailing view in the market is that the likelihood of further declines is high, as crypto investor sentiment has recently frozen over. Some analysts, however, say that if XRP’s incorporation into the regulated mainstream accelerates—spurred by developments such as the U.S. crypto market structure bill (the Clarity Act)—a strong rebound catalyst could emerge.

According to CoinMarketCap, a crypto market data site, XRP as of the day is trading in the mid-$1.3 range, down about 4% from the previous day. That marks a roughly 30% plunge from a month ago. After sinking to the mid-$1 level earlier this month, XRP has continued to trade in a range. Market capitalization has evaporated by more than $26.5 billion (about 38 trillion won) so far this month alone.

The sharp drop in XRP is largely attributed to deteriorating sentiment. According to Alternative, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in the “Extreme Fear” zone throughout the month. Caroline Mauron, co-founder of Orbit Markets, said, “The crypto market remains fragile,” adding that “macroeconomic uncertainty—including geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and confusion over U.S. tariff policy—is weighing on markets.”

Realized losses hit a 3-year high

With prices falling, XRP realized losses totaled $1.93 billion last week—the highest level in about 3 years and 2 months. That indicates a large number of investors sold XRP at a loss.

CoinDesk reported that “XRP posted its largest weekly realized loss since 2022,” adding that “if realized losses remain elevated or spike again, it suggests selling pressure has not yet ended.”

Adding insult to injury, the number of active addresses on XRP Ledger (XRPL) fell nearly 18% over the past month, from about 17,600 at the end of last month to about 14,500 as of the day. The decline in XRPL active addresses is likely to translate into a weakening demand base for XRP.

BeInCrypto said that “several networks, including Canton (CC) and Solana (SOL), have shown meaningful growth over the past year and expanded their presence,” adding that “XRP is facing not only the risk of cooling demand but also an intensely competitive environment.”

Near-term selling pressure remains high. According to CryptoQuant, more than 31 million XRP flowed into Binance in a single day on the 21st. Typically, an increase in tokens flowing into exchanges is seen as amplifying selling pressure.

Darkfost, a CryptoQuant contributor, said, “This effectively means potential selling pressure totaling about $45 million formed in a short period,” adding that “if this selling pressure persists, XRP may struggle to rebound in the short term within the current correction phase.”

This context also underpins why global investment bank (IB) Standard Chartered (SC) sharply cut its year-end target for XRP to $2.8 from $8. While it kept its 2030 target at $28, it said the price is likely to face further downside in the near term.

On Polymarket, the world’s largest betting site, the probability that XRP falls below $1 within the year stood at 73% as of the day—up 35 percentage points from a month ago (38%).

The U.S. Clarity Act is the key variable

Open interest (OI), however, is declining. According to Coinglass, Binance’s XRP futures open interest stood at $2.44 billion as of the day, down nearly 27% over the past month. U.S. spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also held up, posting weekly net inflows for three consecutive weeks.

Cointelegraph said that “the drop in open interest suggests leveraged traders are not opening new positions and are reducing exposure,” adding that “if conviction in the bearish case weakens and buying pressure builds again, a rebound is possible.”

The biggest near-term variable is likely to be the Clarity Act. The White House set next month’s 1st as the deadline for a banking and crypto industry agreement on the bill’s key sticking point—whether to allow interest payments on stablecoins. If the issue is resolved and the Clarity Act moves toward enactment more quickly, it could be a positive catalyst for XRP, a ‘Made in USA’ cryptocurrency, analysts say.

Meanwhile, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently projected an 80% chance that the Clarity Act will clear Congress by this April. An industry official said, “After the Trump administration took office, Ripple substantially reduced regulatory risk by ending its legal dispute with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC),” adding that “whether the Clarity Act passes will determine (Ripple’s) near-term regulatory uncertainty.”