[Analysis] "Bitcoin enters a stabilization phase… uptrend remains uncertain"

An analysis suggests it is still too early to conclude that Bitcoin (BTC), which has recently rebounded, has entered an uptrend.

A CryptoQuant contributor from XWIN Research Japan said via CryptoQuant on the 26th (local time), “Bitcoin’s recent rebound may fuel optimism, but the on-chain structure still calls for a cautious reading,” adding, “Prices have recovered quickly, but key (on-chain) indicators have yet to confirm a full shift into an uptrend.”

Bitcoin began rising in earnest from the previous day (the 25th), climbing from the mid-$66,000 range to the mid-$69,000 range. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading in the low-$68,000 range as of the day, up about 4.8% from the previous day.

XWIN Research Japan highlighted the open interest (OI) indicator. The contributor said, “Open interest has fallen sharply from the prior peak, reflecting a broad deleveraging phase,” and “The recent price decline came alongside a drop in open interest, suggesting that liquidations and the unwinding of derivatives positions—rather than aggressive spot selling—were the primary drivers of the downturn.” He added that “this kind of reset can help stabilize the market, but it does not indicate a structural recovery in demand.”

He also referenced the Fund Flow Ratio, an indicator that measures inflows relative to exchange Bitcoin holdings. XWIN Research Japan said, “Binance’s fund flow ratio remains low at around 0.012,” noting that “a low reading implies limited short-term selling pressure.” He added, “In particular, even as Bitcoin’s price fell into the mid-$60,000 range recently, the ratio did not spike,” which “shows there were no spot inflows driven by fear.”

XWIN Research Japan stressed, “However, weak inflows do not necessarily mean strong accumulation is taking place.” He added, “With leverage reduced, prices can rebound on a short squeeze,” and “the market is entering a stabilization phase, but confirming a shift into an uptrend will require sustained inflows and a qualitative improvement in demand.”