Summary
- Samson Mow said Bitcoin has entered an undervalued zone, trading about 24% to 66% below the trendline relative to gold’s market cap and global money supply (M2).
- He noted the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio Z-score is currently around -1.24, and that past moves into -2 or below were followed by bull runs of more than 150% and 300%.
- Some analysts warned that, citing geopolitical tensions and weaker investor sentiment, Bitcoin—down more than 50% from its peak—could face a near-term test of the $50,000 zone.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
An analysis has found that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered an undervalued zone relative to gold’s market capitalization and global money supply (M2).
According to Cointelegraph on the 1st (local time), Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology firm Jan3, wrote on X that "Bitcoin is trading about 24% to 66% below the trendline versus gold’s market cap or global money supply, while gold is in an overextended state."
April gold futures closed at $5,247.90, and the tokenized gold asset PAX Gold is trading around $5,404.
Mow cited the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio as a key basis. The Z-score indicates how far a price has deviated from its long-term average: 0 represents the average level, above 0 indicates overvaluation versus the average, and below 0 indicates undervaluation.
He explained that "when the Z-score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio falls to -2 or below, major bull runs have appeared in the past." The indicator currently stands at around -1.24.
According to TradingView data, during the FTX collapse in November 2022 the indicator fell below -3, after which Bitcoin’s price rose by more than 150% over the following 12 months. In the March 2020 COVID-19 selloff as well, the Z-score dropped to -2 or below and then posted gains of more than 300% over a year, forming what was then an all-time high of about $69,000 in November 2021.
However, some market analysts are warning of the possibility of further declines. They argue that amid geopolitical tensions and weakening investor sentiment, the recent price action resembles the 2022 bear market.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its recent peak, sliding to the low $60,000s, and has since staged only a limited rebound. Some analysts say they cannot rule out a near-term test of the $50,000 zone.
With an undervaluation thesis based on relative value versus gold and global liquidity flows clashing with calls for further correction reflecting macro uncertainty, the market’s attention is focused on Bitcoin’s next direction.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.
![[Today’s Key Economic & Crypto Calendar] US February Manufacturing PMI, etc.](https://media.bloomingbit.io/static/news/brief_en.webp?w=250)
