‘The Big Short’ protagonist: “Ignore the U.S.-Iran war… positive for markets over the long term”

Asked whether he would change his investment strategy

“I won’t change a single trade”

Investor Steve Eisman, known for the film ‘The Big Short,’ argued that in response to the U.S.-Iran war, investors do not need to overreact to short-term shocks and that it could even be positive for markets over the long term.

Appearing on CNBC on the 2nd (local time), Eisman said, when asked whether he would change anything in his investment strategy because of the dispute, “I won’t change a single trade.”

He said, “I think it’s very positive over the long term,” adding, “People are reacting because of the current situation and oil prices have clearly risen, but if things unfold smoothly, prices will return to previous levels in two months.”

On the day, New York stocks saw significant volatility after the United States, together with Israel, attacked Iran and killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Still, some analyses note that historically, geopolitical clashes have had little long-term impact on equity markets. According to Barclays’ trading desk, since 1980 the S&P 500 index has shown virtually no average movement the day after major geopolitical events. Multiple studies have also found a tendency for stock prices to rebound within a month after conflicts break out.

This time, however, surging oil prices and the possibility of the conflict spreading are cited as key variables. Even before the clash, equities had been trading near record highs, and the pace of gains was already showing signs of slowing amid concerns about the impact artificial intelligence (AI) could have on the broader economy.

Eisman, host of the podcast ‘The Real Eisman Playbook’ and a former Neuberger Berman asset management manager, described the Iranian regime as a “death-cult” and said he supports President Trump’s response.

He added, however, that the dispute may not be resolved in a short period. Eisman said, “This will take time.”

New York—Correspondent Park Shin-young nyusos@hankyung.com