"Bitcoin rises in tandem with US tech stocks... driven by macro conditions, not structural linkage"

Bitcoin has recently moved in a pattern similar to US software stocks, but an analysis says this reflects shared exposure to the macro backdrop rather than a structural linkage.

According to Cointelegraph on the 8th (local time), Greg Cipolaro, head of research at NYDIG, wrote in a report that "over the past week, Bitcoin and US software stocks have climbed together, prompting some to argue that Bitcoin is trading like a proxy for the software sector."

However, he assessed that "a simple comparison of price moves can make the similarity look pronounced, but claims that Bitcoin and software stocks have structurally converged or are exposed to the same investment themes—such as artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing risks—are overstated."

Cipolaro analyzed that "this joint rally is more likely the result of long-rate-sensitive assets and liquidity-dependent risk assets being affected by the same macro environment."

He also said, "While the correlation between Bitcoin and software stocks has risen over the past 90 days, correlations with the Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 and the Nasdaq have also increased over the same period," adding that it is "a phenomenon tied to broader risk-asset flows rather than a shift in the relationship with a specific industry group."

Statistically, about 25% of Bitcoin’s price moves can be explained by correlation with the equity market, while more than 75% is attributed to factors outside traditional financial markets.

He explained that one reason Bitcoin does not trade like 'digital gold' is that investors allocate it as part of a risk-asset portfolio rather than as a macroeconomic hedge. Still, he noted that Bitcoin has its own structural drivers—such as network activity, broader adoption, and regulatory and policy changes—adding that "even if correlations with equities have increased, this is not a key factor determining Bitcoin returns."