Bitcoin steady amid global financial-market jitters… “Further downside possible if U.S. equities are hit”

Bitcoin (BTC) has maintained a relatively stable trajectory despite turmoil in global financial markets, but analysts warn that additional downside pressure could emerge if a shock to U.S. equities materializes.

According to CoinDesk on the 9th (local time), bitcoin has been trading around the $67,000 level, holding in a tight range with little change over the past week. Over the same period, major cryptoassets (cryptocurrencies) such as Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Dogecoin (DOGE) and Solana (SOL) also posted limited gains.

In traditional financial markets, however, risk-off sentiment appears to be spreading. S&P 500 futures fell more than 2% during Asian trading hours, and the VIX index—an indicator of market volatility—rose to its highest level in recent weeks. International crude prices climbed above $100 a barrel, while the dollar recorded its largest weekly gain in the past year.

While bitcoin has been relatively steady, some analysis suggests that additional selling could follow if the likelihood of a U.S. equity-market breakdown rises. Ed Yardeni, a prominent Wall Street equity bull, raised his estimate of the probability of a U.S. market breakdown this year to 35% from 20%. He lowered the odds of a sharp rally to around 5%.

“Right now, the U.S. economy and stock market are in a difficult position because of the Iran issue,” Yardeni said, adding, “If the oil-price shock persists, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will face a difficult policy choice between the risk of rising inflation and the risk of rising unemployment.”

At the same time, some argue that bitcoin’s price action does not move in a structure entirely identical to that of traditional financial markets. Greg Cipolaro, head of research at crypto services firm NYDIG, said, “Recently bitcoin has tracked U.S. tech stocks, but this is less a structural shift than the result of being exposed to the same macro environment.”

“Statistically, only about 25% of bitcoin’s price volatility is explained by stock-market moves, while the remaining 75% is driven by crypto-specific factors such as ETF flows, shifts in derivatives positioning, broader network adoption and the regulatory environment,” he added.