Scaramucci: "Bitcoin’s decline reflects the four-year cycle… rebound seen in Q4 2026"

An analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s (BTC) bearish trend is the result of the traditional four-year cycle and selling by long-term holders.

According to Cointelegraph on the 22nd (local time), Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner at SkyBridge Capital, said in a recent interview that “the market is still under the influence of the four-year cycle,” adding that “downward pressure intensified as some early investors (OGs) began selling around the $100,000 level.”

He explained that while inflows of institutional capital and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have somewhat dampened volatility and made the cycle more gradual than in the past, changes in market structure have not been able to eliminate the cycle itself entirely. He added in particular that “there is also a self-fulfilling aspect where investors who believe in the cycle actually create the pattern.”

Scaramucci projected that “Bitcoin could remain in a volatile range for most of this year and then enter a new upcycle starting in Q4 2026.”

Earlier, expectations had spread that Bitcoin would rise to $150,000 in 2025, but the outlook was significantly shaken after it plunged to around the $60,000 level following a peak of about $126,000 in October last year.

He noted that “markets often move against the public’s expectations,” citing Bitcoin’s rebound in early 2023 after the 2022 FTX collapse. The current correction is also viewed as a typical downswing that has repeated across past cycles.

Still, debate continues in the market over whether Bitcoin’s price cycle has structurally changed due to the introduction of ETFs and increased institutional participation.