Bitcoin’s Downturn Deepens… Talk Emerges of a Slide Into the $50,000 and $40,000 Ranges

As Bitcoin (BTC) fails to hold key support levels, concerns are mounting over the potential for further declines.

According to Cointelegraph on the 23rd (local time), Bitcoin recently traded near $71,000 and attempted a rebound, but failed to break above the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), around $68,300, on a weekly basis. This has fueled analysis that the prior rebound to $76,000 may have been a “bull trap.”

The market assessment is that profit-taking has emerged at each major resistance zone, weakening upside momentum. Some traders say the short-term decline could continue, citing a breakdown from a rising wedge pattern.

From a technical perspective, the low-$65,000 area to the $59,000 range is being cited as a key support zone, with warnings that a break below could widen the downside. Some analysts are even putting downside targets below $50,000, and as low as the mid-$40,000s.

In prediction markets, the probability that Bitcoin will fall below $55,000 by 2026 is reflected at about 70%, while the chance of dropping under $45,000 also appears to be priced in at nearly half.

On-chain indicators also point to an important inflection point. According to CryptoQuant analysis, the roughly $68,000 area is a critical support level that overlaps with the average acquisition price of large holders (100–1,000 BTC). If that level holds, a relatively stable trend may be possible; if it breaks, sentiment among large investors could weaken, amplifying selling pressure.

Meanwhile, the realized price for holders of 10–100 BTC is around $46,000, which is viewed as a “deep support zone” that could serve as the final line of defense if market structure is severely damaged. The market is watching whether $68,000 holds in the near term as a key variable that will determine the next direction.