PiCK
"Markets stay calm despite Middle East tensions… Bitcoin and Ethereum rebound"
Summary
- It said that even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist, the crypto-asset market is showing a relatively stable trend and a rebound.
- It reported that Bitcoin and Ethereum each held above $69,000 and $2,140, respectively, and that an estimated $200 million in short-position liquidations occurred.
- It assessed that, supported by implied volatility, skew, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, Strategy’s resumption of buying, and BitMine’s additional purchases, risk-on flows are being sustained in the near term.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
An analysis has found that the crypto-asset market is showing a relatively steady trend even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East persist.
On the 6th, Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Capital said in a report that "market participants are gradually getting used to the recurring pattern of heightened tensions over the weekend and easing signals at the start of the week, and are adjusting their positions accordingly." It added that "the fact that crude oil and equity index futures are maintaining stable trends reflects this shift in perception."
QCP Capital analyzed that "despite ongoing Middle East tensions, the market is not significantly pricing in an immediate shock scenario," and that "in the near term, the likelihood of risks materializing is only being priced in to a limited extent."
Against this backdrop, crypto markets instead showed a rebound. Bitcoin and Ethereum each rose in early Asian trading, holding above $69,000 and $2,140, respectively, and it is estimated that around $200 million worth of short positions were liquidated amid thin liquidity.
In the options market as well, demand for risk hedging appears to be easing. QCP Capital said that "implied volatility has fallen to its lowest level since the U.S.-Iran confrontation in late February, and skew is also normalizing." It added, "despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, demand for hedges is actually easing."
Institutional demand remains solid. QCP Capital said, "In March, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of about $1.32 billion, turning positive for the first time after four consecutive months of net outflows," adding that "Strategy’s resumption of buying and BitMine’s additional purchases are also supporting demand."
QCP Capital assessed that "judging by current positioning, investors are not preparing for a scenario of an immediate escalation in conflict," and that "risk-on flows are being sustained in the near term."
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
