Summary
- Rep. Ritchie Torres called for SEC and CFTC investigations into unusual trading in the crude futures and stock futures markets.
- Bloomberg reported that Brent and WTI futures contracts equivalent to 6 million barrels were traded, about eight times the previous average.
- The episode has again highlighted information asymmetry between geopolitical events and financial markets amid allegations of advance betting tied to prediction markets such as Polymarket.
Forecast Trend Report by Period



Rep. Ritchie Torres called on the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate unusual trading in crude oil and stock futures ahead of President Donald Trump's announcement delaying a strike on Iran.
Bloomberg reported on June 8 that Torres requested a probe into trading in the oil and equity futures markets just before Trump said he would postpone an attack on Iran.
"The speed, scale and structure of the trades are all suspicious," Torres said. "The circumstances are too clear for the SEC and CFTC to ignore."
The trading was concentrated on March 23, shortly before Trump announced he would delay an attack on Iran's energy infrastructure. At the time, he had warned that he would launch the strike within 48 hours unless the Strait of Hormuz was reopened.
Bloomberg data show that futures contracts equivalent to about 6 million barrels of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude were traded in a two-minute span starting at 6:49 a.m. in New York. That was more than eight times the average of about 700,000 barrels over the previous five trading days.
Roughly 16 minutes later, Trump said in a social media post that he would delay the attack, triggering sharp market volatility.
Torres said regulators should open a formal investigation, including by securing account records related to the trades.
The SEC declined to comment on the request, while the CFTC did not immediately respond. David Miller, director of enforcement at the CFTC, had previously said the agency was monitoring whether unusual trading had occurred in the crude futures market.
The episode has renewed attention on information asymmetry between geopolitical events and financial markets, amid similar allegations of advance betting in prediction markets such as Polymarket.

YM Lee
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