Iran Power Struggle Deepens, Clouding Strait of Hormuz Policy

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

Iran's internal power struggle and the vacuum at the top of its leadership are causing confusion over Strait of Hormuz policy.
Internal tensions were also reflected in the structure of Iran's delegation for US negotiations, which included 80 members, among them 30 officials with decision-making authority.
Rival factions remain far apart over sanctions relief talks and the nuclear issue, raising the risk that even if an agreement is reached, it could quickly fall apart because of internal conflict.

Forecast Trend Report by Period

A deepening power struggle inside Iran is complicating negotiations with the US, one analysis found. With no supreme leader in place after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, the internal battle for power is spilling into conflicting signals over policy on the Strait of Hormuz.

The Economist reported on April 20 that the mixed messaging on the Strait of Hormuz is a sign of a power struggle unfolding without an undisputed leader. The British weekly made the case in an article titled "Which Iran Is America Negotiating With?"

The strain was also visible at the first round of talks. Iran sent an unusually large delegation of 80 people to negotiations in Islamabad, Pakistan, on April 11 and 12, including 30 officials with decision-making authority. That contrasted with earlier negotiations with the US, when Tehran typically relied on small, elite teams.

At the root of the turmoil is a vacuum at the top. Seven weeks after Khamenei's death, Iran has yet to set even a funeral date. Mojtaba Khamenei, considered a potential successor, has also been the subject of persistent speculation about his condition.

Formal authority now rests with the Supreme National Security Council, led by Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, but that arrangement is facing resistance centered on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC. Recent protests in which a woman without a hijab was seen leading chants, along with the decision to postpone local elections scheduled for May 1 by 60 days, were cited as signs of tightening military control.

The rival factions remain far apart on major issues. Nationalists see Iran's proxy forces as a bargaining chip in negotiations for sanctions relief, while Islamists regard them as the core of resistance. On the nuclear issue, nationalists view the program as a risk that could invite an external attack, while Islamists argue Iran should pursue a North Korea-style model of nuclear development.

Even if Iran returns to the negotiating table, deep divisions within its delegation will make a deal difficult, the magazine said. Any agreement that is reached would also face a high risk of quickly unraveling because of the country's internal conflict.

Park Sang-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter, highseoul@hankyung.com