Summary
- The Commerce Department said March retail sales rose 1.7%% from a month earlier, the biggest increase in a year and above the 1.4%% estimate.
- A 15.5%% surge in gasoline spending and a 24.1%% increase in retail gasoline prices in March were the main drivers of the strong retail-sales reading.
- Economists said the retail sales increase may prove temporary as fuel costs remain high and employment stays weak.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
US retail sales posted their biggest gain in a year in March as a jump in gasoline prices drove receipts sharply higher.
The Commerce Department said April 21 that retail sales increased 1.7% in March from the previous month, after a revised 0.7% gain in February. The increase exceeded economists’ 1.4% estimate in surveys compiled by Bloomberg and Reuters. The data are not adjusted for inflation.
A 15.5% surge in gasoline spending accounted for much of the increase after fuel prices climbed to their highest level since 2022 amid the Iran war. Data from the US Energy Information Administration showed retail gasoline prices rose 24.1% in March.
Sales excluding autos and gasoline also increased 0.6% from a month earlier, topping the 0.3% forecast and indicating underlying demand remained firm.
Receipts rose in nearly all of the 13 categories, including furniture, electronics and general merchandise. Auto sales increased 0.5%, while sales at restaurants and bars — the only services category in the report — edged up 0.1%.
The strength likely reflected tax refunds that have reached households in recent weeks.
Reuters said economists at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research estimated that the war-driven jump in prices has increased Americans’ annual gasoline costs by an average of $857 this year.
Separately, Internal Revenue Service data showed the average tax refund as of March 27 was $351 higher than in the same period in 2025.
Economists interviewed by Bloomberg cautioned the increase may prove temporary as the US tax-filing season winds down, fuel costs remain elevated and employment stays weak.
Card-spending data in recent weeks have sent mixed signals. Reports from PNC Financial Services Group and Bank of America pointed to strength in discretionary categories such as travel and electronics. Visa’s Spending Momentum Index, by contrast, suggested declines in discretionary spending excluding gasoline, as well as in essential purchases and dining out.
The report also showed so-called control-group sales, which feed into the government’s gross domestic product calculation, rose 0.7%, the biggest increase since August. That measure excludes food services, auto dealers, building-material stores and gas stations.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release its first estimate of first-quarter gross domestic product on April 30.
Kim Jung-a, contributing reporter, Hankyung.com, kja@hankyung.com
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
