US Munitions Drain From Iran War Raises Fears of Taiwan Defense Gap

Concern is mounting that the US could have less military capacity to defend Taiwan after burning through large amounts of ammunition in the war with Iran.

The Wall Street Journal reported on April 23 that some US administration officials believe missile stockpiles depleted in the recent war with Iran will be difficult to replenish quickly. That, they believe, could make it harder to fully carry out existing operational plans in a scenario such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Since the war began in late February, the US is believed to have used more than 1,000 Tomahawk long-range missiles, along with 1,500 to 2,000 key air-defense missiles including THAAD, Patriot and Standard missiles. Some estimates say it could take as long as six years to fully restore those inventories.

The issue is also fueling internal discussions in the administration over whether military strategy needs to be adjusted. The main risk is a near-term ammunition gap in major conflict scenarios, including a defense of Taiwan.

The US government has officially denied those concerns. The White House said the military has sufficient weapons and ammunition, while Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, testified at a congressional hearing that current force levels are still enough to deter China.

Private-sector assessments are more pessimistic. The Center for Strategic and International Studies said the Iran war may have depleted about 27% of US Tomahawk missile stockpiles and more than two-thirds of Patriot interceptor inventories. The reduction in defensive assets such as interceptor systems could pose a bigger burden.

Experts say a Taiwan defense operation would be a far riskier scenario requiring much greater resources, given China's large missile arsenal and its naval and drone capabilities. As a result, the current level of munitions consumption could weigh on the US military's strategic response capacity over the longer term.