Arthur Hayes Sees Bitcoin Climbing to $125,000 by Year-End on War Spending, Liquidity Expansion
Summary
- Arthur Hayes said Bitcoin could rise to $125,000 by the end of the year.
- He said expanding fiscal spending tied to war and the inflation and liquidity generated by rising defense spending could support Bitcoin.
- He also said looser US banking regulation and ESLR adjustments could enable up to $4 trillion in credit creation, adding upward pressure to Bitcoin prices.
Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin could surge by the end of the year as war-related fiscal spending increases and liquidity expands.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said at the Bitcoin Vegas 2026 conference that Bitcoin could rise to $125,000 by the end of 2026, Bitcoin.com News reported on April 27.
Hayes said the market narrative has recently shifted from AI-driven "credit deflation" to "inflation" fueled by increased war spending. Rising defense outlays could lead to large-scale liquidity injections and lift financial markets broadly, including cryptocurrencies, he added.
He also cited looser US bank regulation as another driver of liquidity growth. Hayes estimated that adjustments to the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, or ESLR, could create about $1.3 trillion in new lending capacity and enable as much as $4 trillion in credit creation.
That expansion in liquidity could add upward pressure to Bitcoin if it spreads across asset markets.
Suehyeon Lee
shlee@bloomingbit.ioI'm reporter Suehyeon Lee, your Web3 Moderator.
