Forecast Trend Report by Period
Bitcoin is attempting to move back above the average cost basis of short-term holders, according to on-chain analysis. A daily close above that level could signal an improvement in market structure.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost wrote in a Quicktake report on May 12 that Bitcoin’s realized average cost basis for short-term holders stands at about $81,800.
Some existing indicators did not fully remove the impact of internal wallet transfers at Coinbase, Darkfost wrote.
A significant portion of roughly 800,000 Bitcoin moved within Coinbase had been classified as long-term holder, or LTH, supply. During simple wallet transfers, those coins were reclassified as new short-term holder UTXOs, artificially lowering the average cost basis for short-term holders.
After applying a separate indicator designed to strip out the effect of Coinbase transfers as much as possible, the actual short-term holder cost basis was calculated at about $81,800, according to the report.
The short-term holder cost basis is widely used as a key support and resistance level in assessing Bitcoin’s medium-term trend.
Darkfost said Bitcoin encountered resistance at that level for a third time on May 6 and is now trying once again to break above it.
A daily close above the level would mark meaningful progress, he added. Confirmation on a weekly basis would be an even stronger bullish signal.
Minseung Kang
minriver@bloomingbit.ioBlockchain journalist | Writer of Trade Now & Altcoin Now, must-read content for investors.
