Trump Heads Into Beijing Summit With Iran in Focus, Raising Odds of a Softer Line on China

President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing on the night of May 13 and is set to hold a bilateral summit at 10 a.m. Beijing time on May 14. While talk has swirled around a possible strategic bargain between the US and China, the broader backdrop suggests Trump may struggle to get everything he wants.

Trump is taking two core issues into the meeting. The first is trade, which he has described as his top priority. Since last year’s tariff war, Washington has made reducing its trade imbalance with China a central objective. Tangible results have been scarce so far, and Trump may see this as the moment to cash in on that pressure campaign. The two sides are expected to discuss and announce steps including the creation of a bilateral trade committee.

The business executives traveling with Trump offer a clearer picture of the results he wants. Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk already operates a factory in China, but is also seeking looser rules for autonomous vehicles and robotaxis.

The presence of the chief executives of Cargill and Boeing suggests deals for exports of US goods are on the agenda. A large group of financial-industry leaders is also traveling with Trump, including executives from BlackRock, Blackstone, Mastercard, Visa and Citibank. Their presence stands out as Trump presses China for greater market opening, a phrase he used in a Truth Social post on May 13.

Nvidia Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang is drawing particular attention. His presence suggests advanced artificial intelligence chip exports could become a bargaining chip in the negotiations. The Trump administration initially blocked exports of Nvidia’s H200 chip before reversing course, but Beijing has moved to stop domestic companies from buying it. Because Chinese companies are widely seen as needing Nvidia chips to keep advancing, the talks could include some easing of semiconductor export controls alongside discussions over rare earths and other critical minerals.

The second issue, and potentially the bigger one, is Iran. Trump said on May 13 that Chinese President Xi Jinping is his friend and that the two have a good relationship. He first said they would have a long discussion about Iran, then quickly changed course and said he did not need help.

The summit itself had originally been planned for late March, but was pushed back by about six weeks because of the Iran war. That left little time to prepare fully for talks with China. Senior White House officials briefed reporters by phone last Sunday, and their comments suggested the administration had some trade items ready. Beyond that, however, the agenda appeared broader than the list of concrete deliverables the meeting was likely to produce.

In Washington, some see the Iran war becoming part of the bargaining over long-running disputes such as trade. That would mean Trump is not in a position to press as aggressively as he might prefer. Xi also sent Vice President Han Zheng, rather than greeting Trump himself, to welcome the US president on arrival, a subtle sign that Beijing wanted to show its standing.

It is hard to imagine China offering Trump no help at all on Iran. That would be a significant political blow for Trump and could also become a trigger for worsening US-China ties from Xi’s perspective. Beijing has preferred to manage Trump and steer the relationship toward easing tensions.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Beijing on May 6, his first trip there since the Iran war began, to coordinate positions. That suggests China may have room to help on issues such as keeping the Strait of Hormuz open, in line with prior discussions with Tehran.

The question is what Washington would give up in return. One possibility is that Chinese purchases of US farm goods and other products come in below expectations. Figures in the tens of billions of dollars were discussed on May 10, far less than the $200 billion in purchases China pledged during Trump’s 2017 visit to Beijing.

The US also appears poised to use the prospect of large arms sales to Taiwan as leverage with China. The message would be that if Beijing does not cooperate, more US weapons could flow to Taiwan. But Trump has already signaled he wants to use additional planned arms sales as a negotiating card by withholding approval of those deals. In practice, that leaves room for him to secure concessions on Iran while taking a more conciliatory approach on Taiwan and showing greater acceptance of Beijing’s position.

Lee Sang-eun, Washington correspondent, Hankyung.com, selee@hankyung.com