PiCK

November Employment Report Awaited, Will Santa Rally Follow? [New York Stock Market Weekly Outlook]

Source

Korea Economic Daily

Summary

It was reported that the S&P500 is expected to maintain above 6000 by the end of this year and could exceed 7000 next year.
The Fed stated that it needs to carefully decide on additional interest rate cuts at the December FOMC meeting.
The U.S. employment report is expected to be crucial data influencing the market.

October Non-Farm Employment Report Scheduled for Release

"S&P500, If Maintained Above 6000 This Year

Could Reach 7000 by End of Next Year"

This week (2nd-6th), the New York Stock Market is watching to see if the recent strong market will lead to a Santa rally in December. According to the monthly research institution Ned Davis Research, if the S&P500 index rises more than 20% annually by November, there is a 76% probability that it will also rise in December. The expectation is that the S&P500 index will maintain above 6000 by the end of this year and could exceed 7000 next year if the strong market continues. Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank's global strategy head, also predicted that the S&P500 index could reach 7000 by the end of 2025 due to recent stock investment demand, strong corporate activities, and increased private equity purchases. He evaluated the U.S.'s low unemployment rate and growth rate around 3% as a "historically strong combination."

This week, the market is awaiting the U.S. employment report. The U.S. Department of Labor will release the non-farm employment report, along with private employment reports, recruitment and resignation reports, and unemployment insurance claims. The market expects that the non-farm employment in November will have increased by 170,000 to 180,000 compared to the previous month.

Recently, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized the need to carefully decide on additional interest rate cuts. The employment reports released this week are expected to be decisive data influencing the Fed's decision at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

Jerome Powell, the U.S. Fed Chairman, and other Fed officials also appeared in this week's public statements. The Fed's economic evaluation report, Beige Book, was also released. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures, which provide insight into the U.S. manufacturing and service industry economy, were also released.

New York = Park Shin-young Special Correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com