Wall Street, Focus on Whether US November Inflation Indicators Also Slowed [New York Stock Exchange Outlook]

November CPI and PPI Scheduled for Release

FedWatch Gives 88% Probability for December FOMC Rate Cut

This week (9th-13th), the New York Stock Exchange is anticipating the release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI). Last week's major employment indicators in the US showed that the labor market remains robust. The US added 227,000 new non-farm jobs in November, surpassing market expectations. The unemployment rate for November was 4.2%, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.1%, but still historically low.

Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, attended an event hosted by the New York Times last week, stating that "the US economy is in an amazingly good situation." He added, "The labor market has also improved, and other major economies envy us."

Despite the strong job market, it is expected that it will be difficult to change the trend of slowing CPI growth. This has led to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 0.25 percentage points at the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regular meeting, which is about ten days away. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch, the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in December is estimated at 88%.

However, caution is growing within the Fed. Michelle Bowman, a Federal Reserve governor, said on the 6th (local time), "As inflation remains high, I prefer to proceed cautiously and gradually in lowering policy rates," adding that it is unclear whether sufficient tightening has been implemented given the still strong US economy.

Ahead of the December FOMC, Federal Reserve members will enter a 'blackout' period starting this week, refraining from making monetary policy statements.

This week, the Import and Export Price Index, Unit Labor Costs, Productivity, and Weekly New Unemployment Insurance Claims will be released. The monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BOC) are also scheduled.

New York = Park Shin-young, Correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com