Summary
- It was reported that the stock market decoupling phenomenon is expected to conclude by early May, and changes in investment direction will be necessary.
- For US stock market recovery, the outline of tariff policy and confirmation of Magnificent Seven performance are important.
- After early May, the US stock market may rise again, and trends in other countries could be better, they added.
"Decoupling Expected Until Early May"
"2nd Round of Return Race Anticipated"
[WowQuick] Investment Information Platform
A forecast suggests that the decoupling phenomenon between US and non-US stock markets will conclude by early May at the latest. Opinions were also presented that investment direction changes will be necessary based on this timing.
On the 14th, Han Ji-young, a research fellow at Kiwoom Securities, stated on Korea Economic TV, "The decoupling phenomenon between non-US and US markets will last at most about two months, until early May," adding that "two conditions are needed for the US index to change direction."
Researcher Han explained, "The first is for the outlines of tariffs to be fully revealed," predicting "the timing to be the end of April." She continued, "Second, confirmation of the Magnificent Seven (M7) performance is necessary," adding that "the flow of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks damaged by deep cyclicals could recover."
She diagnosed that "these two events will conclude in early May, and after that, the second round of the return race game will begin."
Han explained, "(Recently) investors are making decisions to exclude US stocks and the dollar, and instead move toward China, Europe, or Korea which is holding up." She added, "Currently, countries that fell significantly last year are rising, while countries that rose significantly are showing poor performance, creating a market where returns are being adjusted," predicting that "the second phase of return adjustment will occur after May, and from then on, the US will also make another move."
● Key Points
- Currently, US and non-US stock markets are moving independently, but they may synchronize again.
- Market trends in China, Europe, and Korea may be better than the US stock market trend
- Particularly after early May, when the US tariff policy outlines are fully revealed and corporate performance is confirmed, the US stock market is expected to recover.
Reporter Lee Min-jae tobemj@wowtv.co.kr
Korea Economic Daily
hankyung@bloomingbit.ioThe Korea Economic Daily Global is a digital media where latest news on Korean companies, industries, and financial markets.
