Will KOSPI recover to 2600 ahead of FOMC... "Focus on semiconductor and retail stocks" [Weekly Outlook]

NH Investment & Securities forecasts KOSPI weekly range of 2500-2650

"Pay attention to the possibility of resolving political uncertainty"

The KOSPI index returned to the 2560 level, the same as the previous week's closing price, after showing volatility throughout the week. This is interpreted as increased volatility in the domestic stock market due to continued policy uncertainty from U.S. President Donald Trump.

NH Investment & Securities suggested a weekly expected range of 2500-2650 for the KOSPI index this week (March 17-21). The analysis indicates that semiconductor and AI-related stocks are expected to strengthen due to Nvidia's artificial intelligence (AI) conference 'GTC 2025,' and overall market sentiment could improve with the resolution of domestic political uncertainties.

On the 16th, NH Investment & Securities researcher Na Jung-hwan said, "Recently, AI momentum has been shaken by concerns about U.S. tariffs and economic recession. However, there have been cases where AI investment momentum continued after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang's keynote speech in the past," adding, "This keynote speech could also have a positive impact on semiconductor and AI-related stocks."

At Nvidia's GTC 2025, scheduled for March 17-21, details about the AI chip 'Blackwell Ultra' and next-generation graphics card 'Rubin,' both set to be released in the second half of the year, will be announced. On the second day of the event, CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote speech on 'AI and Accelerated Computing Technologies That Change the World.'

The passage of the Commercial Act amendment in the National Assembly plenary session was also highlighted as a notable market factor. On the 13th, the Commercial Act amendment, which expands the scope of directors' fiduciary duty from just 'the company' to 'the company and shareholders,' was passed in the National Assembly plenary session. The financial market views this as a factor that raises expectations for shareholder return policies such as dividend policies. The opinion is that investors should focus on value stocks that have paid stable dividends in the past and have valuation appeal (price level compared to performance). Researcher Na advised, "Among stocks with value characteristics, it is necessary to pay attention to consumption-related stocks that are expected to benefit from domestic economic stimulus measures after political uncertainties are eased."

However, the Trump administration's tariff policies and concerns about a U.S. economic recession still remain burdens on the stock market.

Researcher Na pointed out, "Recently, Canada has shown a tough stance on U.S. tariffs, including retaliatory tariffs and surcharges on electricity exports," adding, "Whether the tough responses from counterparts such as Canada, the European Union (EU), and China subside will determine the direction of tariff risks." He further analyzed, "President Trump is adjusting tariff rates and implementation dates according to the responses of counterparts, and stock prices are also linked to this situation," and "Ultimately, President Trump's tariff policy could be withdrawn or strengthened depending on the reactions and willingness to negotiate of the counterparts."

For this week, he recommended focusing on sectors such as semiconductors, retail, food and beverages, securities, and pharmaceuticals and biotech.

Looking at the economic indicator release schedule worth noting this week: △March 17: U.S. February retail sales, U.S. March New York Fed manufacturing index, China industrial production and retail sales △March 18: U.S. February housing starts, U.S. February industrial production △March 19: Bank of Japan (BOJ) monetary policy meeting in March △March 20: U.S. March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, U.S. March Philadelphia Fed economic outlook index △March 21: Korea's exports for March 1-20, Japan's February national consumer price index.

Shin Min-kyung, Hankyung.com reporter radio@hankyung.com