Altcoin, Rebound Opportunity?…Expectations on Stablecoin Bill and Chokepoint 2.0 Withdrawal

After Trump's Virtual Asset Executive Order

Struggling Altcoins

Changes in US Regulatory Stance and

ETF Approval as Ongoing Growth Factors

Recently, after US President Donald Trump's executive order on 'Strategic Bitcoin (BTC) Reserve', major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH), Ripple (XRP), Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) have shown significant declines and are struggling to rebound.

As of the 20th, according to CoinMarketCap, Ethereum is trading at $2027.87, down 25.71% over the past month, while Ripple is trading at $2.49, down 6.27%. Solana has also fallen 24.89% to $133.52, and Cardano is down 9.1% to $0.7290.

This plunge in altcoins is analyzed to be due to their exclusion from Trump's strategic reserve assets, contrary to investor expectations. Previously, Trump announced on his social media, Truth Social, that he would promote a virtual asset (cryptocurrency) strategic reserve centered on Bitcoin and Ethereum, including Solana, Ripple, and Cardano. This caused the prices of major altcoins to surge.

However, on the 7th (local time), the only asset included in the reserve under Trump's executive order was Bitcoin. Investors expected announcements related to altcoins at the 'Crypto Summit' held at the White House, but instead, announcements that dashed these expectations followed. David Sacks, the White House's virtual asset policy chief, emphasized, "President Trump's mention of Ripple, Solana, and Cardano was unrelated to government preference and merely mentioned the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market cap," urging not to read too much into it.

So, are there no more growth factors left for the altcoin market?

Possibility of Regulatory Changes with Stablecoin Bill Passage and Chokepoint 2.0 Withdrawal

Experts first see the passage of the US 'Stablecoin Bill (GENIUS Act)' as a boon for altcoins.

Previously, on the 13th, the Stablecoin Bill passed the Senate Banking Committee vote 18 to 6 and is now awaiting a full Senate vote. On the 18th, Bo Hines, chairman of the White House Virtual Asset Presidential Advisory Committee, stated, "The Stablecoin Bill may be delivered to President Trump for signing within two months." It is expected that the bill could be approved within two months.

Juwon Lee, a researcher at Xangle Research, said, "Stablecoins are the core foundation of DeFi (Decentralized Finance) and on-chain finance, so if a clear regulatory framework is established, liquidity in the virtual asset market is likely to increase, and the usability of altcoins is likely to expand," adding, "If the bill passes, the overall trust and capital inflow into the altcoin market are expected to improve, and projects that were previously constrained by regulatory uncertainty are likely to become active again."

Ki-Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, also noted the capital inflow into the altcoin market following the growth of stablecoins. He said, "Until 2021, the term altseason referred to the rotation of assets from Bitcoin to other altcoins. However, now, with onboarding from traditional finance layers like spot ETFs or MicroStrategy, there is almost no asset rotation to altcoins," adding, "If the stablecoin market grows, stablecoin trading on virtual asset exchanges will become active, and asset rotation to altcoins will also increase. This is a long-term boon for the altcoin market."

Similar to the passage of the Stablecoin Bill, the withdrawal of Chokepoint 2.0 is also analyzed to have a positive impact on altcoins.

Chokepoint 2.0 is a regulation that blocks access to banking services for virtual asset companies, and Trump is reportedly reviewing an executive order to withdraw it.

Byung-Jun Kim, a researcher at Dispread, predicted, "If Chokepoint 2.0 is lifted, virtual asset companies can establish stable banking partnerships, and as investors find it easier to use on-off ramps, liquidity flowing into the virtual asset market, including altcoins, may increase."

Likely Approval of Solana and Ripple Spot ETFs Within the Year…Possibility of US Government Reserves?

Multiple altcoin ETFs expected to launch this year are also considered major boons for the altcoin market.

Currently, the most likely products to be approved within the year are Solana and Ripple spot ETFs. Although the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has once delayed the approval decision for these, considering the changes in US regulatory stance, the approval is still highly likely within the year.

In particular, Solana is evaluated to have opened the path for spot ETF listing further with the recent launch of Solana futures products on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Ripple is also reportedly under review by the SEC to see if there is a basis to recognize Ripple as a commodity, raising expectations for ETF approval.

However, even if altcoin ETFs are approved, opinions suggest that the effects will vary for each cryptocurrency. Ki-Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, diagnosed, "Spot ETF approval is undoubtedly a boon for altcoins. However, the effects will vary greatly by coin," adding, "Excluding demand for cash-and-carry, coins like Ethereum with little real demand may still be overlooked in the current virtual asset market even if ETFs are approved."

Meanwhile, there is also talk that there is no need to be disappointed that altcoins are not immediately included in the US government strategic reserve assets. This is because US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently mentioned the possibility of altcoin reserves in an interview with CNBC. Secretary Bessent said, "We have started the strategic reserve with Bitcoin," adding, "This is the first step for an overall virtual asset reserve."