New York Stock Exchange Expects April Consumer Prices to Rise 2.3%

On the New York Stock Exchange this week (12th-16th), the results of the tariff negotiations between the United States and China and the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) are expected to be key variables influencing market sentiment. The United States and China met for the first time since the tariff war on the 10th-11th in Geneva, Switzerland. Although it is difficult for the U.S. and China, who have been in a game of chicken, to reach a quick agreement, the mere fact that both sides have started talks could spread optimism in the stock market.

On the 13th, last month's U.S. CPI will be announced, and on the 15th, April's retail sales figures will be released. As Jerome Powell, Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), stated after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the 7th that both unemployment and inflation risks are increasing, the market's attention is focused on the April figures. According to financial information company FactSet, the market expects the April CPI to have risen by 0.3% from the previous month and 2.3% from the same month last year. April retail sales are expected to have increased by 0.1% from the previous month and 3.4% from the previous year. Matthew Miskin, Co-Chief Investment Strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, said, "If the CPI comes out higher than expected and retail sales are sluggish, it could raise concerns about stagflation, where a recession and high inflation occur simultaneously."

Walmart's earnings announcement scheduled for the 15th is also noteworthy, as it allows for an examination of consumer trends and import product price trends. Wall Street is paying attention to companies in the consumer staples and utilities sectors, which have recently emerged as defensive stocks. While the S&P 500 index has fallen by 3.7% this year, these sectors have recorded a growth rate of over 5%. Chuck Carlson, CEO of Horizon Investment Services, told Reuters, "If the market shows a risk-averse mode, these sectors will continue to maintain their leadership."

New York = Park Shin-young, Correspondent nyusos@hankyung.com