[Analysis] "Bankruptcy fears around Strategy are spreading…concerns somewhat overstated"

Amid Bitcoin (BTC)’s recent weak trend, some have raised the possibility that Strategy could face a structural crisis, but an analysis suggests such interpretations are somewhat exaggerated.

On the 8th (local time), XWIN Research Japan, a contributor to CryptoQuant, said: “At this point, the bankruptcy concerns being raised largely reflect an excessive amplification of psychological anxiety triggered by the price decline, rather than any substantive change in on-chain holdings or deterioration in the financial structure,” adding, “In assessing Strategy’s financial risk, it is necessary to continuously track changes in holdings, the debt structure, and access to capital markets rather than focusing on short-term price fluctuations.”

According to XWIN Research Japan, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings have not shown a meaningful decline even once since 2020. CryptoQuant’s “Amount Held” indicator shows that Strategy currently holds about 670,000 BTC, and even during the recent sharp price drop, there have been no observed signs of large outflows due to forced selling or liquidity pressure. This suggests that short-term price moves are not immediately translating into financial risk.

The “Total Paid vs. Worth Currently” indicator shows the same pattern. While the marked-to-market valuation swings sharply with Bitcoin price movements, cumulative investment has continued to rise in a stepwise manner. This indicates that rather than reducing its position during periods of short-term losses, Strategy has maintained a holding strategy grounded in its long-term capital structure.

From a financial statements perspective as well, immediate signs of crisis appear limited. While the value of its Bitcoin holdings is estimated at about $49 billion to $59 billion, total debt remains around $8.2 billion. It also holds approximately $2.25 billion in cash, and major debt maturities are concentrated after 2027–2028, meaning near-term refinancing or repayment pressure is not substantial.

XWIN Research Japan added: “Strategy has already experienced the 2021–2022 bear market, when Bitcoin prices stayed below the average purchase price for an extended period,” but noted, “Still, if Bitcoin price weakness becomes prolonged while capital market conditions deteriorate at the same time, the possibility of a gradual expansion of risk cannot be ruled out.”