Will XRP Become the Third Spot ETF in the U.S.? Rising Expectations for Approval Within the Year

Canadian Stock Exchange Lists First While U.S. SEC Still Reviewing

Bloomberg: "95% Chance of Approval This Year"

Forecasts That It Could Lead the Altcoin Market

XRP has rapidly emerged as a leading candidate to fill the more than year-long gap since the launch of the first spot crypto ETF in the U.S. The industry is watching closely to see if XRP can become the third spot crypto ETF in the U.S., following Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).

According to the industry on the 27th, the 19b-4 forms related to the XRP spot ETF were submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) at the end of January this year. The 19b-4 is a review request for ETF approval. Seven asset management companies, including Grayscale, Bitwise, and Franklin Templeton, have applied for SEC approval, and the deadline for response is October 17.

Previously, on the 18th of this month, the XRP spot ETF was listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) in Canada, attracting attention. This is notable because the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs were also first listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange before appearing in the U.S. market.

Toronto Listing Fuels Optimism for U.S. Listing

The recently listed XRP spot ETF in Toronto is a product launched by Purpose Investments and is structured to invest directly in XRP. It was introduced in three types: ▲XRPP (Canadian dollar-hedged) ▲XRPP.B (unhedged) ▲XRPP.U (USD-denominated).

Currently, only XRP futures ETFs are available for trading in the U.S. The XRP Futures ETF, listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group last month, recorded an accumulated trading volume of $542 million within one month. This demonstrates the high level of investor interest in XRP ETFs.

Of course, the popularity of futures ETFs does not automatically translate into spot ETF listings. However, as demand in the U.S. market has been confirmed through the XRP Futures ETF, expectations are rising for a spot ETF listing as well.

Seokmoon Jung, Research Director at Presto Labs, assessed that the Toronto Stock Exchange listing of the XRP spot ETF has also increased the possibility of a U.S. market listing. He commented, "Canada and the U.S. have similar regulatory environments with free capital flows between them. The competitive relationship between the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange also raises expectations for ETF approval."

"High Probability of Approval This Year"

Experts view the likelihood of XRP spot ETF approval within the year as high. James Seyffart, a Bloomberg ETF analyst, recently announced via X (formerly Twitter), "I have raised the probability of XRP spot ETF approval to 95% within the year." He added, "I've also significantly increased the approval probability of most spot crypto ETFs, and the SEC's proactive stance is fueling optimism."

There is also speculation that BlackRock, the world's largest asset management firm, may launch an XRP spot ETF. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, said, "BlackRock will not leave the lucrative XRP and Solana spot ETF market to competitors. Both XRP and Solana will be submitted for ETF applications."

Expectations among investors are also evident on the decentralized prediction market, Polymarket. As of today, Polymarket data shows the probability of XRP spot ETF approval within the year at 80%.

"ETF Launch Would Be Positive for XRP Price"

There is a growing view that the launch of a spot ETF could be a key turning point for XRP prices. Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered (SC), predicted, "XRP will surpass Ethereum by 2028 to lead the altcoin market, with expected positives from spot ETF approval, growing demand for global settlements, and the legal resolution between Ripple and the SEC." He set a target price for XRP of at least $5.

Research Director Seokmoon Jung also explained, "If a spot ETF is launched, it would have a positive impact on XRP prices, similar to the listings of Bitcoin and Ethereum. In particular, it would make it easier for institutional investors to participate." He added, "If funds flow into the ETF, there will be increased buying pressure for XRP as the underlying asset needs to be acquired."

Jinwook, a reporter for BloomingBit, wook9629@bloomingbit.io