"What happens if a Taiwan Strait war breaks out"… Allies startled by request for answers from 'Trump strategist' [Issue+]

FT: "Colby, Deputy Secretary, asked Japan and Australia for specific responses"

The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 12th (local time) that the United States has asked the governments of Japan and Australia, its Indo-Pacific allies, to clarify what specific roles they would play if the U.S. entered a war with China over the Taiwan issue. Amid these developments, the Australian government declared, "We will not pre-deploy troops in any conflict."

Citing multiple sources, the FT reported that "Elbridge Colby, the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, repeatedly raised this issue in meetings with Japanese and Australian defense officials." Colby, who is responsible for drafting and implementing a defense agenda influenced by the MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement, emphasizes allied participation and burden-sharing to counter China.

Quoting sources, FT noted, "Concrete operational concepts and exercises that would directly apply to a Taiwan contingency are being discussed with Japan and Australia," and, "(Colby's) demands surprised the Japanese and Australian governments, especially since even the United States is not offering a blank check for Taiwan’s security." Unlike previous U.S. presidents who have stressed the importance of defending Taiwan, President Donald Trump has maintained 'strategic ambiguity' by not clearly stating his position. As a result, one source said, "Japan, Australia, and other allies collectively expressed puzzlement at these demands."

In response to Colby's requests, the Japanese Ministry of Defense gave a principled answer, stating it was difficult to respond to hypothetical questions and that, "responses would be made in accordance with the constitution and international law," according to FT. Australia's Pat Conroy, the Minister for Defence Industry, went so far as to say in a broadcast interview on the 13th (local time) that, "We will not pre-deploy troops in any conflict." Speaking with ABC Broadcasting, he added, "Australia's sovereignty comes first, and we do not discuss hypothetical situations," noting that "whether to deploy troops will be decided by the government at that time."

This discussion led by Deputy Secretary Colby is one of the central themes of the 2025 NDS (National Defense Strategy), which the U.S. aims to complete by the end of August. It is not yet clear what role he expects from the South Korean government in these deliberations. However, in line with his usual stance, the 2025 NDS is likely to prioritize deterring China's 'invasion of Taiwan' and defending the U.S. homeland, while assigning allies, particularly South Korea, the main role of deterring threats such as North Korea. It is also expected to include reductions and role adjustments for United States Forces Korea.

As a key figure in Trump’s defense policy, Deputy Secretary Colby has argued that, while the U.S. should provide extended deterrence against North Korea's nuclear threat, South Korea should take a more leading role in defending against North Korea’s conventional threats. In fact, a recent U.S. think tank report, co-authored by Dan Caldwell, the former senior advisor to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, proposed a significant reduction of United States Forces Korea from 28,500 to 10,000 troops. The report also suggested sending two of South Korea’s Air Force squadrons currently stationed in Korea back to the United States.

Jonghyun Song, Reporter scream@hankyung.com