Hit hard by the bear market? Citi sharply cuts Coinbase price target

Uk Jin

Summary

Citi said it lowered Coinbase’s price target from $505 to $400, citing shrinking trading volumes, a slowdown in institutional investors’ activity, and the possibility of delays in US crypto legislation.
Citi said it cut its forecast for Coinbase’s Q4 2025 net revenue by about 10% to $1.69 billion, and expects roughly $2.3 billion in valuation losses and an EPS loss of -$2.64, reflecting declines in the value of crypto assets and its stake in Circle.
Still, Citi maintained its investment rating on Coinbase at “Buy · High Risk,” saying progress on US regulatory frameworks and discussions over a US market structure bill could be key catalysts.

US investment bank Citigroup has sharply lowered its price target for cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. The move comes as risk-off sentiment has gripped the broader crypto market, sending trading volumes plunging.

According to CoinDesk on the 6th (Korea time), Citi said in a report sent to investors that day that it cut its Coinbase price target to $400 from $505.

Citi cited declining trading volumes, slowing activity by institutional investors, and the possibility of delays in crypto-related legislation in the US as factors behind the cut.

Coinbase shares are down about 65% from last year’s peak. The previous session’s close was $146, and the stock was up about 6% in premarket trading.

Citi also lowered its earnings outlook for Coinbase. It reduced its forecast for net revenue in the fourth quarter of this year (Q4 2025) by about 10% to $1.69 billion, saying the figure is about 4% below the market consensus.

Citi further estimated that Coinbase would incur roughly $2.3 billion in valuation losses, reflecting declines in the value of its crypto holdings and its stake in stablecoin issuer Circle.

As a result, Citi expects Coinbase to post a loss, with EPS for Q4 this year projected at -$2.64.

Still, Citi maintained its investment rating on Coinbase at “Buy · High Risk,” citing its view that Coinbase could be the biggest beneficiary if US regulatory frameworks advance.

Citi said in particular that discussions over a US market structure bill could serve as a key catalyst, while noting that Senate negotiations could stretch beyond 2026.

Coinbase is set to report its Q4 2025 and full-year results on the 12th.