Trump pressures for end of war with tariffs… Breakdown of 'bromance' with Putin

US: "100% tariffs if Russia doesn't ceasefire"... Secondary sanctions for trading nations

Containment of China importing Russian crude

'100% tariffs' for trading partners too

Pressured for ceasefire within 50 days

Criticism: "Gives Putin time to respond"

US provides offensive weapons to Ukraine

Contract signed with NATO for arms supply

Zelensky: "Thank you to Trump"

President Donald Trump of the United States announced on the 14th (local time) that he would supply Ukraine not only with defensive but also offensive weapons, and strengthen sanctions against Russia, thus cracking his 'bromance' with Russian President Vladimir Putin. President Trump, who had previously shown a conciliatory stance toward Russia, is now shifting to a hardline policy, drawing attention to potential changes in the course of the Ukraine war.

◇'Maximum Pressure' on Russia

On this day, President Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the White House Oval Office, saying, "I am disappointed in President Putin" and complained, "I thought the negotiations would be settled two months ago, but it hasn't happened." He also remarked, "We will produce the world's best military equipment," and mentioned attacking Iran's nuclear facilities with a bunker buster.

After taking office, President Trump pressured Ukraine to bring about an end to the war through negotiations. He rebuked President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in the White House, concluded a mineral agreement, and once suspended weapon aid. He believed the continued war was owed to Ukraine's unnecessary resistance.

Even as it seemed Ukraine was being successfully pressured, there were no signs of an end to the conflict. After repeated hours-long phone discussions with President Putin that showed no progress, President Trump pivoted to a strategy of maximum pressure. That day in particular, he threatened to impose "harsh tariffs" unless a peace agreement was reached within 50 days. "Around 100% tariffs—what you could call secondary tariffs," he said.

Europe has immediately welcomed President Trump's change of attitude. Kaja Kallas, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, said, "It is very desirable to take a hard line toward Russia." President Zelensky wrote on social media, "Thank you for your willingness to support Ukraine."

However, there is criticism that President Trump’s 50-day deadline is excessively long. Kallas pointed out, "Considering that Russian forces are killing innocent civilians every day, 50 days is a very long time." This raises the possibility that Russia may take the next 50 days to increase its occupied territories within Ukraine.

◇The Key: Execution of Sanctions

The question is whether this pressure will actually be effective. Since Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US and its Western allies have implemented as many as 25,000 major economic sanctions against Russia. Consequently, trade volumes between the US and Russia have plummeted. According to UN statistics, in 2021 the US imported $30.8 billion worth of goods from Russia, but last year this share dropped to one-tenth of that. The only Russian imports the US still purchases are mostly cheap fertilizers.

Thus, a 100% tariff imposed on Russia may look severe, but it is unlikely to significantly damage Russia in practice. US exports to Russia were merely $526.1 million last year. President Trump's mention of secondary sanctions is interpreted as related. In order to truly pressure Russia, it is necessary to sanction countries trading with Russia as well. Previously, Senator Lindsey Graham, a pro-Trump Republican, together with a Democratic senator, introduced a bill imposing 500% tariffs on products from countries importing Russian oil and uranium.

However, implementing secondary sanctions using tariffs is not a simple task. Russian crude is mainly sold to China (47%) and India (38%). The European Union (EU) and Türkiye each purchase about 6% as well. Simply imposing high tariffs on these countries just for buying Russian oil or gas is not easy. The US could also face the side effect of rising prices. Ongoing tariff negotiations have already stalled for various reasons, and imposing additional tariffs as part of secondary sanctions could further complicate the situation. Ultimately, the threat may not be carried out, or even if implemented, it may quickly be withdrawn, becoming a mere 'paper tiger.'

President Trump has already declared a secondary tariff (25%) on Venezuelan goods, but has never actually imposed tariffs on China, India, or others that import Venezuelan crude for this reason.

Washington = Special Correspondent Sang-eun Lee selee@hankyung.com