US expert: "Even if Korea succeeds in negotiations with Trump, a 15~18% reciprocal tariff will remain"

"Export restrictions such as quotas expected even if item tariffs are eased"

Even if Korea achieves a successful outcome in trade negotiations with the Trump administration of the United States, experts have analyzed that a reciprocal tariff rate of 15~18% will still be applied.

Michael Beeman, former Assistant USTR (Office of the United States Trade Representative), said in a Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) podcast released on the 17th (local time), "If the negotiations in the Oval Office (the President's office in the White House) go well, then Korea's (reciprocal tariff rate) will likely be between 15~18%."

Beeman cited Vietnam—a country with a significant trade surplus with the US—which reduced its reciprocal tariff rate from 46% to 20%, and commented, "Countries like Korea and Japan fall into the same category. The European Union (EU) is also in a similar category." He predicted that the tariff rates for these countries would be between 10~20%.

Beeman believes that, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows the US to take measures such as import restrictions if national security is threatened, Korea may be able to ease some conditions regarding automobile and steel tariffs, but high tariff rates will likely remain.

He said, "I think there is a very strong intent to minimize exceptions to tariffs under Section 232", and noted, "While some countries may be able to ease conditions in certain aspects, concessions such as export restrictions (quotas) will be necessary."

Former Assistant USTR Beeman oversaw Korea, Japan, and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) at the USTR from January 2017 during the Trump administration until January 2023 under the Joe Biden administration. In 2017, he also served as the chief representative for the US side in FTA renegotiations with Korea.

Sesung Oh, Hankyung.com reporter sesung@hankyung.com