Ishiba: "No Political Stagnation Needed"... Begins 'Holding Out' Citing US Negotiations

Refuses to Resign Despite Responsibility for Upper House Election Defeat

First Failure of Majority in Both Houses in 70 Years

Maintains Position as Largest Party Despite Opposition Majority

Judgment That "Nothing Has Changed Significantly"

Possibility of Additional Coalition With Opposition Parties Mentioned

Lame Duck Status Inevitable Even If Position Is Maintained

Taro Aso: "Cannot Accept Continuation in Office"

Signs of Intra-party Factional Moves to Oust Ishiba

Unlikely to Withstand Pressure If Approval Ratings Drop

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan began to 'cling to his post' even after a crushing defeat in the election. For the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), even if a new party president is elected, the need to hold a prime ministerial designation election under the current minority-lower-and-upper-house situation means that if the opposition parties unite, the administration could be handed over. The variable is how widely the 'move to oust Ishiba' will spread within the LDP. The Yomiuri Shimbun predicted, "From now on, we cannot avoid the drift of politics," adding, "This could become a situation akin to a new 'national crisis'."

◇ Prime Minister Ishiba Begins to Hold Out

At a press conference on the 21st, Prime Minister Ishiba apologized for the defeat in the Upper House (House of Councillors) election held the previous day. He said, "The LDP has been strictly judged by the people," and "As party president, I deeply and sincerely apologize." However, he revealed his inner thoughts by saying, "I received a lot of support in difficult circumstances." He also remarked, "We received seats as the number one party; it's something to be grateful for." Although the LDP secured only 39 out of the 125 seats contested in this election, they maintained their top party status.

The LDP already fell into a minority situation in both houses after its defeat in the House of Representatives (Lower House) election last October. Although it became a 'minority ruling party' even in the House of Councillors, analysts say the judgment was that not much would change. Unlike the Lower House, there is no prime ministerial designation election after the Upper House election, so the position can be maintained even as a minority ruling party in both houses. In addition, the coalition partner Komeito won eight seats. Combined, that’s 47 seats. Although it falls short of the 50-seat target, observers believe Ishiba sees this as not a large enough gap to require immediate resignation.

The approaching September 1 date for the 25% reciprocal tariff by the Donald Trump US administration also served as justification for Ishiba to hold out, as it allowed him to emphasize the continuity of negotiations. At the press conference, he cited US tariff measures and stressed, "The most important thing right now is to avoid a standstill in national affairs." He added, "I would like to talk with President Trump as soon as possible."

However, the inability to secure a majority in both houses means the weakening of the administration’s foundation is unavoidable. The LDP and Komeito may seek a coalition with some opposition parties to ensure smooth parliamentary operations. Although Ishiba denied any immediate coalition expansion at the press conference, some assess this as positioning himself for tougher bargaining in future talks. Coalition negotiations could take time, so the next steps may involve securing cooperation individually on policies and striving to pass the supplementary budget and other bills.

◇ Will the Move to Oust Ishiba Spread?

The key lies in the actions of the 'Aso Faction,' the only faction remaining within the LDP. Former Prime Minister Taro Aso, leader of the Aso Faction, is reported to have told those around him, "I cannot accept (Ishiba's) continuation as prime minister." However, it’s possible that calls for Ishiba's resignation may not spread further due to concerns among the LDP about potential complications in the process of selecting a new prime minister. The issue for the LDP is that, even if a new leader is chosen, the minority situation in both the lower and upper houses remains unchanged, meaning a prime ministerial designation election must still be held. If the opposition unites behind a particular party leader, the ruling administration may have to hand over power.

Another variable is the approval rating for the Ishiba Cabinet. If the current rating of 20–30% drops further, it’s expected that it will become even harder for him to hold out. If Ishiba resigns, a party presidential election will be held within a month, and the new party president will run in the prime ministerial designation election. If the opposition fails to unite, the LDP president will become prime minister. In last September's LDP presidential election, a record nine candidates ran. Among the current cabinet, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and Minister of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Shinjiro Koizumi both ran in that election. Sanae Takaichi, former Minister for Economic Security with right-wing tendencies, and Takayuki Kobayashi, former Minister for Economic Security, are also being mentioned as possible candidates for the next party president.

Tokyo = Il-kyu Kim, Correspondent black0419@hankyung.com