US government shutdown fallout… Gold near $3,900, Asian markets rise

US stock futures fell

750,000 federal employees furloughed

The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown again for the first time in seven years. The shutdown has furloughed 750,000 federal employees. The cost of the shutdown is estimated at US$400 million (₩560 billion) per day.

After the midnight deadline on the 30th local time for congressional funding passed, U.S. stock futures fell and gold neared $3,900 per ounce, hitting record highs. The dollar weakened.

In the forex market, the dollar index fell for the fourth consecutive day, trading down 0.2% at 97.59 that day. The euro traded up 0.2% at $1.1756, and the yen rose 0.6% against the dollar to 147.06 yen.

S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.7%. Spot gold rose to $3,895 per ounce, marking a third consecutive trading-day record high.

Asian and European stocks were up.

That day Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 0.9%. The Nikkei index rose 11% during the third quarter. The KOSPI, which rose 11.5% in Q3, gained 0.9% after strong September export data.

Taiwan's stock market also rose 0.6%. Taiwan's chief tariff negotiations official said Taiwan would refuse a U.S. request to shift semiconductor production to the United States for semiconductors that account for half of U.S. demand.

China's markets including Hong Kong will be closed from the 1st to the 10th for holidays.

European stocks mostly rose. The STOXX 600, which covers leading companies across Europe, rose 0.4%.

Due to the shutdown, key economic data releases, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics' August nonfarm payrolls report — an important indicator for interest rate outlooks — are expected to be delayed and not released this week.

Although stock futures were down, the market expected that the federal government closure itself would not have a large negative impact on markets.

Danske Bank's chief investment strategist Lars Skovgard said, "We cannot rule out that the U.S. government closure could cause some unease, but we are not worried."

However, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise's chief market strategist, said that if the government shutdown is prolonged it could negatively affect the September inflation report to be released in mid-October. He said, "If the Bureau of Labor Statistics is not operating normally, it could affect data collection efforts and hurt data quality."

Guest reporter Kim Jeong-ah kja@hankyung.com