[Morning Briefing] On first day of U.S. shutdown, some public facilities close… Dow & S&P500 close at record highs

Source
Korea Economic Daily

Summary

  • Reported that despite the U.S. federal government's shutdown, the Dow and the S&P500 index recorded all-time highs.
  • Noted that past shutdowns had limited impact on the real economy and that expectations for Fed rate cuts helped drive the stock rise.
  • Reported that concerns over a prolonged federal shutdown pushed international gold prices to record highs, sustaining safe-haven investment demand.

◆ First day of U.S. shutdown… some public facilities closed and national parks operating with restrictions

The U.S. federal government entered a "shutdown" (temporary work stoppage) on the 1st (local time) after Congress failed to pass a budget due to disagreements over health insurance subsidies, causing some public institutions and tourist sites to close and inconveniencing citizens. Since it was the first day, the impact was not large, but forecasts say the effects of the shutdown will intensify after the weekend, from the 6th onward. In Washington, D.C., the Washington Monument, the National Archives, the U.S. Botanic Garden, the Library of Congress and visitor centers closed from that day citing the shutdown. Museums under the Smithsonian Institution in Washington, D.C., such as the National Museum of Natural History and the National Air and Space Museum, operated normally that day. However, whether they will remain open after next week is uncertain. Due to the shutdown, civil servants in essential areas such as defense and public safety continue to work, while non-essential civil servants are placed on unpaid leave. Those who continue to work will receive back pay after the shutdown ends.

◆ New York Stock Market: Dow & S&P500 close at record highs despite U.S. government shutdown

Despite the U.S. federal government entering a shutdown on the 1st (local time), major U.S. stock indexes closed at record highs. On that day the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,441.10, up 43.21 points (0.09%) from the previous close. The Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500 index closed at 6,711.20, up 22.74 points (0.34%), and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 22,755.16, up 95.15 points (0.42%). Those gains pushed the Dow and the S&P 500 to record highs. Investors weighed the expectation that, despite the start of the federal government shutdown, its impact on the real economy would be limited as in past cases. Historically, shutdowns have typically ended within one to two weeks and had limited economic impact. The unexpectedly weak private-sector employment figures for September also raised expectations for two additional interest rate cuts by the U.S. central bank (the Fed) this year, providing further momentum for stock gains.

◆ Trump: "Will meet Xi Jinping in 4 weeks to discuss China stopping imports of U.S. soybeans"

U.S. President Donald Trump on the 1st (local time) reaffirmed that he plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit to be held in Korea at the end of this month, and said he will discuss China’s halt to U.S. soybean purchases at that meeting. On his social media platform Truth Social, Trump said, "China has been stopping purchases just for 'negotiation' reasons, hurting our soybean farmers," and "We made a lot of money from tariffs and will help farmers with a small portion of those proceeds." He added, "I will meet President Xi in 4 weeks, and soybeans will be one of the main topics of discussion," adding, "Make soybeans and other crops great again." Earlier, on the 19th of last month, Trump had said on Truth Social that he and President Xi had agreed to meet at the APEC summit in Korea after a phone call between them, and he reaffirmed that statement. U.S. soybean farmers are being hit hard as China has effectively halted imports of U.S. soybeans despite the start of the fall harvest season.

◆ Gold hits record high amid U.S. government shutdown... nearing $3,900 per ounce

On the 1st (local time), as demand for safe-haven assets rose with the U.S. federal government entering a shutdown, international gold prices again surpassed record highs. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, December gold futures settled at 3897.5 dollars per ounce, up 0.6% from the previous close, marking a closing record high. Spot gold prices also rose intraday to as high as 3895.09 dollars per ounce, setting a record high. After the U.S. Congress failed to pass a budget on time amid disputes over health insurance-related spending, the federal government entered a shutdown at 12:01 a.m. on the 1st. Concerns that a prolonged federal government shutdown could negatively impact the U.S. economy have sustained investment demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. The dollar's weakness against major currencies amid increased U.S. economic uncertainty also contributed to higher dollar-denominated gold prices.

◆ "Mother of the chimpanzees," zoologist and environmentalist Jane Goodall dies

World-renowned zoologist and environmentalist Dr. Jane Goodall passed away at the age of 91 on the 1st (local time). The Jane Goodall Institute said on its Instagram account that Dr. Goodall, the institute's founder, passed away from natural causes while in California on a U.S. speaking tour. Born in London in 1934 and raised in Bournemouth, Goodall's passion for animals began in childhood after reading classics such as Tarzan and Doctor Dolittle. Unable to attend university due to difficult circumstances and working as a secretary in London, her life changed when a friend invited her to visit Kenya in 1957. There she met the eminent paleoanthropologist Louis Leakey, who guided her into primate research. Beginning research on wild chimpanzees in the Gombe region in western Tanzania, Goodall discovered that wild chimpanzees could manufacture and use tools—a trait once thought unique to humans—and published her findings in Nature in 1964, creating a stir in the academic community.

◆ Musk becomes first-ever "$500 billion (about 702 trillion won)" wealthy person as Tesla stock rises

With Tesla stock continuing its rise, CEO Elon Musk, the world's richest person, saw his net worth exceed 500 billion dollars (about 702 trillion won). Forbes reported on the 1st (local time) that Musk became the first person ever to hold 500 billion dollars in assets. According to Forbes, Musk's net worth surpassed 400 billion dollars for the first time last December and exceeded 500 billion dollars in less than a year. Forbes reported that Tesla's stock rose about 4% in the afternoon, increasing Musk's net worth by approximately 9.3 billion dollars (about 13 trillion won). Forbes said the value of Musk's 12% stake in Tesla is currently 191 billion dollars (about 268 trillion won). Tesla shares rose for four consecutive days starting on the 26th of last month and closed at 459.46 dollars that day.

◆ Nationwide cloudy skies a day before the holiday… rain in the Seoul metropolitan and Chungcheong regions

On Thursday the 2nd, cool autumn weather is forecast in the morning and evening, with rain expected mainly in the Seoul metropolitan area and the Chungcheong region. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration, central regions will be partly cloudy at times, while the southern regions and Jeju Island will be mostly cloudy. Afternoon showers of around 5~10 mm are expected in southern Gyeonggi and northern parts of Sejong and South Chungcheong. Rain will begin in South Jeolla and Jeju from night and expand to Chungcheong and South Gyeongsang by the 3rd. Dense fog with visibility under 1 km may occur in inland areas from dawn to morning, so caution is advised for traffic safety. Morning low temperatures are expected to be 14~19 degrees, and daytime highs 24~27 degrees. Temperatures are expected to be similar to or slightly higher than normal for the time of year (normal lows 10~18 degrees, highs 22~25 degrees). Fine dust levels are expected to remain "normal" nationwide due to good atmospheric dispersion. The Seoul metropolitan area, Chungcheong region, Gwangju, and North Jeolla may briefly see "bad" levels at night due to foreign-origin dust inflows.

Cha Eun-ji, Hankyung.com reporter chachacha@hankyung.com

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Korea Economic Daily

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