"Global Government Debt Ratio to Exceed 100% in 2029"

IMF, U.S. 140%·S. Korea 63% Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projected that the global government debt ratio relative to gross domestic product (GDP) will reach its highest level since 1948 in 2029.

In the "Fiscal Monitor" released on the 15th (local time) ahead of the IMF-World Bank (WB) annual meetings in Washington, D.C., the IMF said the global general government debt (D2) ratio to GDP in 2029 is expected to exceed 100%. The Guardian reported that "it is the highest level since 1948, when major economies collapsed under the costs of reconstruction after World War II." D2 is used internationally to compare fiscal soundness across governments.

The IMF said that in the case of the United States, the current level of fiscal deficits is unlikely to improve significantly. The U.S. general government overall fiscal balance as a percentage of GDP is projected at -7.9% in 2025, -8% in 2026, -8.1% in 2029, and -7.7% in 2029. Accordingly, the IMF expects the U.S. general government debt-to-GDP ratio to rise from 125% in 2025 to 140.1% in 2029.

For South Korea, the general government debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 53.4% in 2025, 56.7% in 2026, 58.9% in 2027, 60.9% in 2028, and 62.7% in 2029.

The IMF analyzed, "This projection is higher than pre-pandemic expectations and the rate of increase is steep," and added, "Rising global interest rates are already placing a large burden on budgets for debt servicing, and rising asset prices are increasing financial stability risks."

Reporter Im Dayeon allopen@hankyung.com