JH Kim

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) was shown to have an 85% chance of cutting the benchmark interest rate three times this year. Market expectations for rate cuts have risen to their highest level of the year. On the 24th (local time), according to Kalshi, a prediction market platform based on virtual assets (cryptocurrencies), the probability of three cuts to the benchmark rate this year was calculated at 85% in the federal funds futures (Fed Fund Futures) market. This is the highest level since the statistics for that indicator began to be compiled. Market participants expect the Fed to shift to an early easing stance based on the recently released slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the rising unemployment rate. According to Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch data, the probability of a rate cut has risen significantly from 68% a month ago. However, some Fed officials maintain that a cautious approach is necessary, saying "inflationary pressures have not been completely resolved."

The three major U.S. stock indexes are showing gains. The Nasdaq Composite was trading at 23168.31 points at 00:09 on the 25th, up 0.99% compared with the previous day. The Dow Jones index was up 0.86% at 47138.41 points, and the S&P 500 was up 0.76% at 6789.68 points.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher. The Nasdaq Composite Index recorded 22,941.80 points, up 0.89% from the previous day on the 24th. The Dow Jones index closed at 46,734.61 points, up 0.31%, and the S&P 500 index closed at 6,737.91 points, up 0.57%.

The White House said the decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to pardon Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) was an "exercise of the constitutional pardon power." It said the measure was a decision to correct excessive enforcement by the U.S. government regarding alleged violations of anti-money laundering rules. According to business breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg on the 23rd (local time), a White House spokesperson said, "The pardon of Changpeng Zhao was reviewed by the White House Counsel and is part of the president's exercise of his constitutional pardon power." The White House added, "This case was judged to be an instance that went beyond the scope of regulatory enforcement," and emphasized, "The pardon measure is a decision to restore fairness and legal balance." It also added, "President Trump is exercising the clemency power guaranteed by the Constitution." This pardon is interpreted as a move in which President Trump reaffirmed 'revitalizing the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) industry' and 'easing excessive regulation' as core economic policy stances. In the market, Binance token BNB showed an immediate reaction, rising as much as 8%.

The White House said that U.S. President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on October 30 in connection with his Asia tour schedule. The meeting is set to take place 48 hours before a decision to raise tariffs on China and is expected to become a major turning point in future U.S.-China economic relations. On the 23rd (local time), economic breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg reported that a White House spokesperson said, "President Trump plans to meet with China's Xi Jinping during his Asia tour, and the schedule has already been confirmed by both sides." The meeting comes ahead of the implementation of the 100%p increase in tariffs on China that President Trump had announced. President Trump had previously warned, "If no agreement is reached by November 1, I may impose 155% tariffs on China." The meeting is expected to address key diplomatic and economic issues such as U.S.-China trade tensions, restrictions on technology exports, stabilizing supply chains, and cooperation on sanctions against Russia. Washington diplomats are watching to see whether the meeting could mark a turning point toward stabilizing U.S.-China relations.

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, said that Donald Trump’s remark about 'canceling the summit' "appears to mean a postponement." He also emphasized that additional Western sanctions would not have a significant impact on the Russian economy. On the 23rd (local time), according to economic news channel Walter Bloomberg, President Putin said, "The new sanctions will not cause substantial damage to the Russian economy," adding, "Russia has already established an independent financial system." He went on to warn, "An attack on Russian territory would be regarded as a clear military escalation," and "Russia's response would be very serious." President Putin also said, "If the supply of Russian crude in the international oil market were to sharply decrease, it could lead to a rise in oil prices," and stressed the importance of international cooperation to stabilize energy markets.

The three major U.S. stock indices are showing gains. The Nasdaq Composite was trading at 22,883.46 points at 00:32 on the 24th, up 0.63% from the previous day. The Dow Jones index was up 0.13% at 46,652.62 points, and the S&P 500 index was up 0.34% at 6,722.18 points.

Paul Atkins (Paul Atkins), a commissioner of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said he plans to expedite the approval process for crypto (cryptocurrency) spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) through internal innovation. He emphasized that market oversight and improvements to regulations related to digital assets will continue even in a shutdown (government shutdown) situation. On the 22nd (local time), according to crypto-focused media CryptoBriefing, Commissioner Atkins said, "Even though the federal government has suspended operations due to a shutdown, the SEC's market oversight continues," and "to promote crypto innovation, we will establish a new internal project management system and increase the speed of crypto ETF approvals." He also added, "We will strengthen the SEC's internal innovation processes to shorten regulatory review procedures related to crypto assets," and "we will expand communication with market participants to reduce uncertainty." Experts assessed that this remark is a signal to increase the regulator's response speed and efficiency amid the recent rapid growth of the crypto ETF market in the U.S.

Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, said he is scheduled to hold talks with senior Chinese officials this weekend. However, he warned that if the talks break down, the United States will consider response measures together with its allies. On the 22nd (local time), according to economic breaking news channel Walter Bloomberg, Treasury Secretary Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business, "I am scheduled to hold talks with Chinese partners this weekend," and "if the talks break down, we will discuss the next steps with the United States and its allies." This meeting is seen as an extension of recent moves to resume U.S.-China trade and financial consultations, and the main agenda items are reported to be technology export controls, exchange rate policy, and supply chain stabilization. In Washington diplomatic circles, the meeting is expected to serve as preliminary coordination for future diplomatic schedules between U.S. and Chinese leaders.

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed lower. On the 23rd, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.93% from the previous day to 22,740.40 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.71% to 46,590.41 points, and the S&P 500 index closed down 0.52% at 6,700.48 points.

A private roundtable attended by U.S. Republican lawmakers and virtual asset (cryptocurrency) industry leaders concluded on the 22nd (local time). The meeting featured in-depth discussions centered on anti–money laundering (AML) and revisions to the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), as well as the regulatory direction for DeFi (decentralized finance). Eleanor Terrett, host of Crypto in America, said on X(formerly Twitter), "The roundtable between Republicans and crypto industry leaders has just concluded." According to Terrett, attendees supported strengthening legislation to block illicit finance and reached a consensus that DeFi regulation should focus on intermediaries rather than protocols. It was also reported that there was a proposal for Republicans, Democrats, and industry representatives to gather in one place to review the bills in detail and reconcile concerns for about three hours. A separate roundtable between Senate Democrats and crypto industry leaders was held the previous day, showing that discussions on crypto regulation at the U.S. congressional level are spreading beyond partisan lines.

The United States is set to significantly strengthen the level of sanctions against Russia. The U.S. Treasury Department has indicated that this measure is expected to cover a broader scope than the existing sanctions regime. On the 22nd (local time), according to economic news channel Walter Bloomberg (Walter Bloomberg), Scott Bessent (Scott Bessent), U.S. Treasury Secretary, said, "The level of sanctions against Russia will be significantly raised," and added, "The sanctions details will be announced today or tomorrow." The measure is reported to aim at cutting off funding for Russia's war and strengthening controls on diverted imports through third countries. The Treasury is reportedly reviewing additional sanctions focused particularly on strategic industry sectors such as energy, finance, and technology. Experts analyzed that, "If the United States further strengthens sanctions on Russia, cooperation from European and Asian allies will become important," and that, "the possibility of increased volatility in global financial markets cannot be ruled out."

The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is reported to have sent warnings to hundreds of unlicensed virtual asset (cryptocurrency) exchanges during the month of October. Moves to strengthen oversight of virtual asset service providers in the UK are now in full swing. On the 22nd (local time), according to crypto-focused media outlet Cointelegraph, the FCA issued warning actions against multiple exchanges, including Elite Bit Markets, Nexsure Gainbit, and Flux Crypto. The FCA has designated unlicensed operators that provide virtual asset trading services to, or advertise to, UK investors as targets for enforcement. In particular, regulatory risk has increased recently after exchange HTX was charged with illegal promotion targeting UK residents. Experts analyzed that "UK authorities have entered a phase of trying to clearly set consumer protection standards for the virtual asset industry" and that "sanctions against unlicensed exchanges could spread across Europe."

A private roundtable attended by U.S. Senate Democrats and key figures from the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) industry concluded on the 22nd (local time). The meeting focused on restoring shaken trust after the DeFi (decentralized finance) regulation leak and on maintaining the industry's political neutrality. Eleanor Terrett, host of Crypto in America, said on X (formerly Twitter), "The meeting between Senate Democrats and industry leaders has just concluded." Senators warned that "the virtual asset industry must not serve as an arm of the Republican Party," and pointed out that the DeFi regulatory draft leak has damaged trust in the industry. However, the senators added, "We will continue to work to pass legislation related to virtual assets, and discussions will not be delayed." The meeting is regarded as a consultative process aimed at moving virtual asset policy discussions within the U.S. Congress beyond partisan confrontation and into a substantive legislative phase.

The U.S. federal government shutdown (temporary closure) has continued into its 22nd day, making it the second-longest shutdown on record. With little chance of an early resolution, the political standoff is becoming prolonged. On the 22nd (local time), according to economic news channel Walter Bloomberg, the shutdown has continued because Senate Democrats refused to pass a short-term budget bill. The bill was submitted by Republicans but drew opposition because funding for health insurance and some welfare programs was excluded. The longest shutdown in U.S. history lasted about five weeks in 2018 amid a dispute over immigration funding during the Trump administration. The current shutdown is also the second prolonged case to occur during President Trump's tenure. Political analysts warned, "If this shutdown is prolonged, economic damage from delays in federal agencies' work and disruptions to public services could increase."

The Donald Trump administration is reportedly reviewing software export restrictions aimed at China and controls on exports to China of products manufactured using U.S. software. The move is interpreted as a response to China's rare earths export restrictions. On the 22nd (local time), according to economic news channel Walter Bloomberg(Walter Bloomberg), the Trump administration is discussing introducing export restriction measures targeting U.S.-made software and global products produced using that software. This plan fleshes out President Trump's previously mentioned policy of "blocking exports of Critical Software", and it has been suggested that some items could face new tariffs or export control measures in parallel. However, according to multiple sources, the measure is still under review and its actual implementation has not been decided.

Google announced that its quantum computing division has achieved 'Verifiable Quantum Advantage.' This is evaluated as the first case to actually demonstrate computations that cannot be performed by conventional computers. On the 22nd (local time), according to financial news channel Walter Bloomberg, the Google Quantum AI team said the 105-qubit-based quantum chip 'Willow' achieved up to 99.9% operation accuracy. The chip is reported to have performed millions of operations in just a few seconds. Google also explained that by applying the new quantum algorithm 'Quantum Echoes', it processed operations that are impossible for existing supercomputers. This achievement is regarded as an important milestone showing that quantum computing is entering the stage of practical computation. Experts analyzed, "It is significant that Google presented the experimental data in a publicly verifiable form," and "the applicability is expected to expand in various fields such as finance, materials engineering, and cryptanalysis in the future."

Canadian financial authorities have imposed a US$126 million fine on Xeltox, the operator of the virtual asset (cryptocurrency) service platform Cryptomus. The action is a sanction for violations of anti–money laundering (AML) regulations and is interpreted as reflecting a trend toward tighter regulation of virtual asset companies in Canada. On the 22nd (local time), Bloomberg reported that Xeltox, headquartered in Vancouver, provides virtual asset trading, payments, wallets, and P2P trading services. The Financial Transactions and Reports Analysis Centre of Canada (FINTRAC) said Xeltox failed to fulfill its anti–money laundering obligations. FINTRAC pointed out that Cryptomus did not report suspicious transactions related to child sexual abuse material trading, fraud, ransomware, and other matters to authorities. The sanction shows that supervision of digital asset service providers in Canada is becoming more stringent. Experts said, "The Canadian government's imposition of a large fine for AML violations could affect the global virtual asset regulatory environment," and analyzed that "strengthening internal controls of exchanges and payment platforms is inevitable."

The three major U.S. stock indexes are showing declines. The Nasdaq Composite index is trading at 22,853.36 points as of the 23rd 00:00, down 0.44% from the previous day. The Dow Jones index is down 0.24% at 46,809.90 points, and the S&P 500 index is down 0.22% at 6,720.37 points.