JH Kim

On the 23rd (local time), economic news account Walter Bloomberg cited Axios in reporting that Iran fired six missiles targeting a US military base located in Qatar. Furthermore, Reuters News Agency quoted eyewitnesses saying that additional explosions were heard over the skies of Doha, the capital of Qatar. So far, the landing site and the extent of damage from the missiles have not been confirmed. This attack is interpreted as retaliation for the US airstrike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

On the 23rd (local time), economic news feed Walter Bloomberg, citing Fox News, reported that the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) may attack the US military base located in Qatar in a short period of time.

According to CNN on the 23rd (local time), international oil prices, which had soared at one point due to news of U.S. airstrikes on Iran, have turned downward again. As of 10:40 a.m. (local time) that day, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in the U.S. fell by about 1% per barrel to stand at $73.15. The previous day, WTI had surged by as much as 6.2% during intraday trading, rising to $78.40, but later gave up all those gains. Brent Crude also showed a decline of about 1%. Previously, the market had soared on concerns over supply disruptions due to heightened tensions in the Middle East following the U.S. airstrikes on Iran, but as no substantial disruption was confirmed, it is analyzed that profit-taking orders emerged. Donald Trump, the U.S. President, also stated on Truth Social, "Everyone needs to lower oil prices. Watching. Do not fall for the enemy's strategy." Market experts say that, for now, all eyes are keenly watching the situation in the Middle East. Bob McNally, CEO of Rapidan Energy Group, said in an interview with CNN, "Traders have witnessed several instances when geopolitical instability originating from the Middle East did not actually lead to supply disruptions," and diagnosed, "If there is no real disruption in oil production or logistics flows in the Gulf region, the surge in oil prices will be limited." Meanwhile, whether the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s most vital oil maritime chokepoint through which about 20 million barrels flow daily—will actually be blocked, is expected to become the key variable for future oil price trends.

According to CNN on the 23rd (local time), the Qatari government announced that it would temporarily close the country's airspace due to regional security concerns. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar stated, "Qatar has decided to temporarily suspend aircraft operations in its airspace, prioritizing the safety of its citizens, residents, and visitors," adding, "This is part of a preemptive measure in consideration of the recent situation in the Middle East." It continued, "Authorities are closely monitoring the situation in cooperation with regional and international partners." This action was taken amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, after the United States conducted airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities last weekend and Iran warned of retaliation against the US. Previously, the Embassy of the United States in Qatar advised local Americans to "shelter in place until further notice," and the Government of the United Kingdom also issued the same shelter-in-place guidance to its citizens. The Government of the United Kingdom stated, "We are monitoring the situation and will provide additional information."

The three major U.S. stock indices are showing an upward trend. As of 00:32 on the 24th, the Nasdaq Composite Index is trading at 19,527.86 points, up 0.41% from the previous close. The Dow Jones Index is currently up 0.15% at 42,268.24 points, and the S&P 500 Index is up 0.33% at 5,987.45 points.

On the 22nd (local time), CNN reported, citing UN sources, "The UN Security Council is scheduled to hold an emergency meeting at 3 p.m. (local time) today regarding the US airstrike on Iran's nuclear facility." This Security Council meeting is being convened immediately after the United States struck Iran's nuclear facility, and global attention is focused on whether the council will issue an official response or statement.

Ismail Baghaei, spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry, stated in an interview with CNN on the 22nd (local time), "The United States and Israel must be held responsible for the consequences of this war." Baghaei said, "The Trump administration betrayed diplomacy. They are not qualified to talk about diplomacy," but added, "Nevertheless, diplomacy is not over." Regarding the U.S. military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities early that morning, he stressed, "The right to self-defense is a right guaranteed by international law, and we will definitely exercise that right." He avoided commenting on the extent of damages or potential countermeasures. He also warned, "The recent remarks by President Trump and additional threats of attack constitute 'collective bullying' on an international scale. As a result, the Middle East is facing an unprecedented crisis in history." Baghaei insisted that Iran's response was strictly limited to military and security objectives, stating, "We did not attack civilians. On the contrary, it was Israel that targeted civilians." He continued, "The Israeli Defense Minister’s threat against Iran’s Supreme Leader amounts to a blatant act of terrorist intimidation against the head of state, and these remarks are extremely shameful and shocking," he strongly criticized. Finally, Baghaei said, "Iran has done its utmost for diplomacy and peace so far," adding, "History will never forgive what the U.S. administration is committing."

According to CNN on the 22nd (local time), U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared that day on CBS 'Face the Nation' and stated, "If Iran blockades the Strait of Hormuz, the country that should be most outraged is China," adding, "because China relies on the strait for a significant portion of its oil imports." He continued, "If Iran mines and blockades the strait, not only China but the entire world will be seriously affected," and added, "the U.S. will also feel the impact, but compared to other countries, it will be relatively minor." On the same day in a Fox News interview, Secretary Rubio also said, "Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz would be an act of economic self-harm," and warned, "the U.S. has options to respond to such actions, which could trigger responses not just from the U.S. but also from other nations as well."

On the 20th (local time), according to CNN, Donald Trump, President of the United States, stated that a decision regarding possible U.S. military intervention against Iran could come within two weeks at most, and possibly sooner. Meeting with reporters in New Jersey, President Trump said, "I am giving them (the Iranian side) time. We'll see how much time that is, but two weeks is the maximum." This marks President Trump’s first official remarks directly referencing the 'self-imposed deadline for a diplomatic solution' announced by the White House spokesperson the previous day. Meanwhile, regarding the form of U.S. involvement, he said, "I will not talk about ground troops. Ground troops are the option I want to avoid the most," denying the possibility of engagement through ground operations. President Trump also commented that "Israel's capability to eliminate all of Iran's nuclear facilities is limited," adding, "They may be able to breach some, but not those buried deep underground. They do not have such capability," thus highlighting the limitations of an Israeli solo operation. Finally, he emphasized, "I am always a person who seeks peace. However, sometimes a firm attitude is necessary for peace."

On the 20th (local time), according to CNN, Donald Trump, the President of the United States, stated that "Given that Israel currently holds a military advantage over Iran in its airstrikes, requesting Israel to stop its attacks is a very difficult thing to do." Speaking to reporters before attending a fundraising event in New Jersey, President Trump said, "If someone is winning a war, it's hard to make them stop," adding, "Israel is currently doing well in the war, whereas Iran is not. In such a situation, it's not easy to ask them to stop." President Trump added, "We want a diplomatic solution and are continuing efforts to maintain a dialogue with Iran. Let's see how it goes." Meanwhile, President Trump also expressed skepticism about Europe's mediation efforts. He said, "Europe hasn't been helpful. Iran doesn't want to talk with Europe. They want to talk with the United States," adding, "Europe cannot be the answer in this matter."

The three major U.S. stock indices ended mixed. On the 21st, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 0.51% from the previous day to 19,447.41 points. The Dow Jones Index rose 0.08% to 42,206.82 points, while the S&P 500 Index closed down 0.26% at 5,965.49 points.

On the 20th (local time), CNN reported that the Iranian government demanded the "halt of Israeli airstrikes" as a precondition for agreeing to direct nuclear negotiations with the United States. According to Western diplomatic sources, Iranian diplomats expressed their position during talks with European nations held in Geneva, Switzerland, stating that "as long as Israel continues airstrikes against their country, there will be no direct talks with the United States." In response, European representatives reportedly replied, "The United States does not have direct authority to control Israel’s military actions," but said they would convey Iran’s message to the U.S. side. Furthermore, Iran stated that it would also recommend to its own leadership the possibility of halting its own airstrikes on Israel and hinted that if both sides stop attacks, direct talks with the United States could be possible. Meanwhile, the U.S. side made it clear that "halting uranium enrichment" is an essential requirement for successful direct dialogue with Iran.

On the 20th (local time), CNN, citing Iranian state media IRNA, reported that the Geneva talks held between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and the foreign policy representatives of the United Kingdom, France, Germany (E3), and the European Union (EU) proceeded "in a mutually respectful and serious atmosphere." The meeting lasted about 3 hours and 30 minutes, and IRNA stated that Minister Araghchi "led various discussions and negotiations regarding Iran's nuclear issue" during the meeting. Araghchi attended the meeting at the InterContinental Hotel in Geneva after delivering a speech at the United Nations Human Rights Council. IRNA added, "In the course of these talks, some issues have become clearer, and diplomatic avenues may open," and "E3 countries and the EU still play a historical role and hope to gain another opportunity for diplomatic progress."

James Seyffart, a Bloomberg analyst, stated on the 20th (local time) via X (formerly Twitter) that "the probability of approval for most virtual asset (cryptocurrency) spot ETF applications is over 90%." He explained, "The recent active communication with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is a positive signal," while adding, "However, the timing of the approval is still uncertain. There is a possibility that discussions may take place within the next month or two, or it may be postponed to October or later."

According to CNN on the 20th (local time), the United Kingdom government has announced the temporary withdrawal of its diplomatic staff from Iran due to deteriorating security conditions in the country. On this day, a spokesperson for the Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) stated in a press release, "As a precautionary measure, we have temporarily withdrawn some British diplomats considering the current security situation in Iran," and added, "The British Embassy in Iran continues to operate remotely." Furthermore, "We take the safety of our diplomatic staff and British nationals extremely seriously, and we have advised against all travel to Iran for a prolonged period," the spokesperson added.

Majid Farahani, the spokesperson for the Iranian presidential office, stated in an interview with CNN on the 20th (local time) that "if Donald Trump, President of the United States, instructs Israel to halt airstrikes, diplomacy with Iran can be resumed immediately." Farahani reaffirmed Iran's stance that "if President Trump makes just one call to Israel, the war can stop," emphasizing that no dialogue is possible as long as the bombing of Iran continues. He also added, "Iran will not suspend peaceful nuclear enrichment, but some concessions are possible," clarifying, "We can lower the enrichment level, but it will not be completely stopped." Meanwhile, the United States and Israel have been demanding a full suspension of Iran's uranium enrichment, while France has publicly taken a hardline stance of ‘zero enrichment’. Earlier, President Trump declared a two-week negotiation grace period while leaving room for talks with Iran, and as a result, in Geneva, Switzerland, the first face-to-face negotiations are underway between the foreign ministers of Iran, France, Germany, and the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Regarding this, spokesperson Farahani added, "If the United States intervenes in the war, there are various response options, and all possibilities are on the table."

Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, stated via X (formerly Twitter) on the 20th (local time) that "right now, the world needs cryptocurrencies more than ever." He said, "Globally, debt is increasing exponentially, and inflation is shaking the economies of many countries," adding, "In this situation where economic freedom is increasingly under threat, cryptocurrencies are a means to restore and expand it."

The three major U.S. stock indexes are showing mixed performances. As of 00:05 on the 21st, the Nasdaq Composite Index is trading at 19,495.67 points, down 0.26% from the previous day. The Dow Jones Index is up 0.16% at 42,241.11 points, while the S&P 500 Index is down 0.01% at 5,980.37 points.

According to CNN on the 19th (local time), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his country "has the capability to strike all of Iran's nuclear facilities and will in fact do so." Prime Minister Netanyahu said in an interview with Israel's public broadcaster Kan, "We are at war, and we do not disclose the operation schedule," adding, "But we will achieve all goals and strike all of Iran's nuclear facilities. We have the power to do so." Netanyahu also stated, "We did not wait for the green light from the United States," while mentioning, "The Trump administration is supporting Israel's defense." Regarding the possibility of full U.S. involvement, he added, "That decision is up to President Trump himself, and any form of contribution is always welcome."