Last month, the number of employed people decreased by 52,000 compared to the same period last year. This is the first decline in 3 years and 10 months since February 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic, when it decreased by 473,000. The decline was significant in the wholesale and retail sectors and the construction industry, which are directly linked to domestic demand. On an annual basis, the increase in the number of employed people last year was only half of the previous year's level. Analysts suggest that the Korean economy is on alert as even the relatively stable employment indicators show clear signs of slowdown following the deceleration in export growth in the latter half of last year. According to Statistics Korea's 'December 2024 and Annual Employment Trends' released on the 15th, the number of employed people in December last year was 28,041,000, a decrease of 52,000 from a year ago. By industry, employment weakness continued in sectors directly linked to domestic demand, such as wholesale and retail and construction. The largest decrease was in the construction industry (-157,000), followed by significant declines in manufacturing (-97,000) and wholesale and retail (-96,000). Employment indicators are generally considered lagging indicators of the economy, indicating that domestic demand weakness is affecting the job market. A Ministry of Economy and Finance official explained, "The December employment indicators temporarily slowed due to factors such as weakened consumer sentiment due to political uncertainty and the end of year direct job creation projects." By age group, the elderly continued to drive the job market, while the trend of decline among the youth persisted. By age, those aged 60 and over increased by 162,000, those in their 30s by 96,000, and those in their 50s by 4,000. In contrast, those in their 20s decreased by 194,000, and those in their 40s by 97,000. Notably, the number of people who were neither working nor seeking jobs, referred to as the 'resting' population, reached 2,524,000, the second highest on record for the month since December 2020 (2,536,000) during the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the youth (aged 15-29), it increased by 45,000, and by 37,000 in their 30s. On the other hand, the overall employment rate showed a positive trend. The employment rate for those aged 15-64, the OECD comparison standard, was 69.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the same month last year. The number of unemployed people was 1,115,000, an increase of 171,000 from a year ago. The unemployment rate was 3.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the same month last year. On an annual basis, the number of employed people was 28,576,000, an increase of 159,000 (0.6%) from the previous year. The annual number of employed people increased by 301,000 in 2019, decreased by 218,000 in 2020 when COVID-19 spread, and then increased by 369,000 the following year. In 2022, it increased by 816,000, the largest increase in 22 years since 2000 (882,000). However, it shrank to 327,000 in 2023 and fell to the 150,000 range this year, marking a slowdown in growth for two consecutive years. A Ministry of Economy and Finance official stated, "The increase in employment in 2022 and 2023 exceeded the long-term trend significantly due to base effects, resulting in a slowdown in the rate of employment growth and a reduction in the increase in the number of employed people." By industry, the number of employed people in the construction industry decreased by 49,000, the largest decline since related statistics were compiled in 2013. Employment also decreased in wholesale and retail (-61,000) and manufacturing (-6,000). By age, those aged 60 and over increased by 266,000, but those in their 20s decreased by 124,000. The employment rate for those aged 15 and over was 62.7%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous year, the highest since statistics began in 1963. The OECD standard employment rate for those aged 15-64 also recorded an all-time high of 69.5%. The Ministry of Economy and Finance forecasts that the increase in the number of employed people this year will be around 120,000, below last year's 159,000. Although the increase in the number of employed people will shrink due to the expansion of the decline in the working-age population, the employment rate is expected to continue its upward trend at 62.8%. A Ministry of Economy and Finance official pointed out, "Amid significant domestic and international uncertainties, the base effect of the number of employed people increasing by more than 300,000 in January and February last year may also constrain employment growth this year." Kang Kyung-min, reporter kkm1026@hankyung.com
2025.January.14General