Expectations that the U.S. government shutdown (temporary work stoppage) will be resolved have grown, raising anticipation for the launch of XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, experts assessed that despite expectations for increased liquidity, uncertainties remain for a sustained recovery. Expectation of shutdown end…Market 'on alert' for XRP spot ETF launch Market expectations for the launch of XRP spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are increasing. This is based on analysis that if the U.S. federal government shutdown is lifted, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to resume ETF reviews. A continuing resolution to end the shutdown has already passed the U.S. Senate and could go to a House vote as early as the 12th (local time). On the 10th (local time), crypto-focused media Cryptobriefing reported that major asset managers such as Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, Bitwise, Canary Capital, and CoinShares each registered XRP spot ETF tickers with the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). DTCC registration is interpreted as a signal that ETFs have officially entered the listing process. Market expectations grew further particularly because the timing of this registration was immediately after Ripple's annual event 'Swell 2025.' News that Ripple recently raised $500 million in new funding from global large market makers such as Citadel Securities also supported an XRP price rebound. Nate Geraci, chairman of Novadius Wealth Management, said on X (formerly Twitter) on the 10th, "If the U.S. federal government shutdown ends, a rush of spot ETF approvals will begin," and he predicted, "There is a possibility that the first XRP spot ETF under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933 (33 Act) could launch this week." XRP: Will the short-term rebound continue…"Breaking $2.6 is the watershed" After a roughly 12% surge, XRP has undergone a correction and is resting around $2.45. Market participants see breaking the $2.6 resistance as a watershed for a future trend change. As of 11:52 a.m. on the 12th, based on the Binance USDT market, XRP was trading at $2.398, down 5.35% from the previous day (3,586 won on Upbit). Bob Mason, an FXPro analyst, said, "Recently XRP briefly recovered to $2.5 but failed to break through the mid-term resistance range of $2.56–2.58," adding, "This can be seen as a neutral to bearish signal. Short-term support is expected at $2.35, and the main support range at $2.2." Shaan, an analyst at CryptoPotato, said, "The area around $2.5 is a key resistance where the 200-day moving average and past supply zones overlap," and added, "If the daily close breaks above $2.6, the short-term trend is likely to shift toward buying pressure." Analysts also say that selling pressure is increasing as long-term investors take profits. According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, while XRP fell about 25% from $3.09 at the end of September to $2.30, the daily profit-taking amount by long-term investors (7-day moving average) surged about 240% from $65 million to $220 million. Glassnode interpreted, "Because this profit-taking occurred in a bearish phase rather than a bull market, it acts as a short-term supply-demand burden." Crypto market, despite negative news easing…"Not yet a shift to a bull market" Expectations of the shutdown ending and of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff dividend payments briefly stimulated crypto investor sentiment, but experts are divided on whether the upward trend will continue. Alex Kufchikevich, lead analyst at FXPro, analyzed, "Bitcoin recently touched $107,000 but then fell below $105,000," and "the total crypto market capitalization also hit resistance around $3.62 trillion, slowing the rally." He added, "The market as a whole does not yet appear ready to transition into a full bull market," and "profit-taking continues and weakening corporate buying is also a burden." Trading volume, which had surged along with improved investor sentiment, has also cooled somewhat. According to CoinMarketCap, daily spot trading volume that was around $190 billion earlier this month exceeded $700 billion on the 11th, then fell to $564.7 billion that day. Negotiation progress on ending the shutdown and President Trump's tariff dividend plan boosted volume, but short-term profit-taking continued, cooling the enthusiasm. Experts still warn of the possibility of adjustments. Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said, "Although Bitcoin is above the 50-week moving average (the 'season end line') at $103,170, it is difficult to say the market has entered a full recovery phase." He forecasted, "Altcoins may attempt a temporary rebound in mid-month, but they are likely to show increasing weakness relative to Bitcoin toward the end of the year." He added, "If adjustments continue even after the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) ends, the market could return to a bear market next year." Crypto services firm Matrixport analyzed, "Investor sentiment is unlikely to fully recover based solely on expectations of a shutdown end and President Trump's $2,000 tariff dividend remarks," adding, "ETF capital flows are still constrained, so short-term upward momentum will be limited." Crypto analytics firm 10x Research also pointed out, "The relief rally due to the shutdown end is only temporary, and fundamental supply-demand recovery has not yet been confirmed." Accordingly, market participants are watching key variables such as the timing of the end of U.S. quantitative tightening (QT), the possibility of additional rate cuts, and whether a dovish figure (favoring monetary easing) will be nominated as Jerome Powell's successor as Fed chair. If liquidity-enhancing factors materialize, risk-asset appetite could recover and have a positive effect on the crypto market. Crypto analytics firm SwissBlock said in a recent report, "Bitcoin dominance (market share) is showing signs of slowing," and analyzed, "Major altcoins such as Ethereum are increasingly likely to stabilize after bottoming out." It added, "An initial flow of funds that had been concentrated in Bitcoin being redistributed to altcoins is being detected," and "Historically, when Bitcoin dominance peaked, major altcoins generally bottomed out and then rebounded." Kang Min-seung, BloomingBit reporter minriver@bloomingbit.io
November 12PiCK