With Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), making cautious remarks that cooled expectations for further rate cuts, and the U.S.-China summit also being viewed as merely a 'strategic time-buying' move, major macro events have concluded but market uncertainty has instead increased, weighing on investor sentiment in the virtual assets (cryptocurrency) market. Experts said that if Bitcoin breaks the $112,500 resistance, its rebound momentum could strengthen, but conversely, if it falls below $107,000, the downside could widen. The market remains in an unstable equilibrium, unable to establish a short-term direction. As of 1:50 PM on the 31st, on the Binance Tether (USDT) market Bitcoin is trading at $109,900, up 0.7% from the previous day (based on Upbit 163,850,000 won). At the same time, the kimchi premium (domestic-foreign price difference) stands at 5.4%. Tactical Truce Between the U.S. and China…Trade War Paused but Sparks Remain Donald Trump, President of the United States, and Xi Jinping, President of China, eased tensions over the trade war at the summit in Busan on the 30th. Temporary settlements were reached on key issues such as tariffs, rare earth export controls, and the fentanyl problem, bringing immediate relief to the market. President Trump said immediately after the meeting, "The rare earth issue has been completely resolved," and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, "A signing could be possible as early as next week." China agreed to partially resume imports of U.S. soybeans and to cooperate on blocking fentanyl, while the U.S. reduced tariffs on related items to 10%. However, critics noted that this agreement has limitations in resolving structural problems. While the U.S. attracted large investments from South Korea, Europe, and Japan, trade imbalances and technological conflicts with China remain. President Trump also did not specifically comment on whether to extend the deferred expiration of the ultra-high tariffs on China that expire in mid-next month. Foreign outlets also described the meeting as a 'tactical truce.' The New York Times (NYT) reported that "China demonstrated the ability to retaliate against U.S. pressure," and The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) said that "President Trump confirmed China's willingness to retaliate." Market Cooling Despite Rate Cut…Powell's Hawkish Remarks Dampened Expectations On the 29th (local time), the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate by 0.25% point at the regular Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, but internal disagreements surfaced, increasing uncertainty over future monetary policy. After the FOMC, Chair Powell said at a press conference, "An additional rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion," taking a cautious stance, and his more hawkish-than-expected remarks tempered hopes for further cuts this year. However, the Fed announced at this meeting that it will end balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening · QT) from December 1. The decision to stop QT, which has continued since June 2022, is interpreted as a signal of renewed liquidity provision to the market. According to the CME FedWatch, as of 1 PM that day, the rate futures market lowered the probability of a December rate cut from the previous 90% range to 72.8%. Meanwhile, the chance of a hold rose to 27.2%, up sharply from 9.1% previously. "Long-term Holders Selling · Institutions on the Sidelines…Bitcoin Taking a Breather in an Unstable Equilibrium" Amid the 'super week' of overlapping U.S.-China talks and the FOMC, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) shifted to net outflows. Net outflows for this week (27–29) amounted to 119,000,000 dollars. Virtual asset (cryptocurrency) analytics firm Swissblock said on the 30th, "Chair Powell's comment that an additional December rate cut is uncertain has dampened overall risk asset sentiment," adding, "Bitcoin is losing upward momentum as it is pushed below the reference price for short-term holders." It warned that "with volatility in the virtual asset market still not calming, if downward pressure accelerates, a 'risk-off' signal (flight to safe assets) could ignite another wave of selling." Long-term holders' selling has also continued. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode noted in its weekly research report that "the monthly net sell volume of long-term holders is estimated at over 100,000 BTC, indicating that supply pressure has not been resolved," adding that "it is difficult for demand alone to support the market." It added that "long-term investors' profit-taking continues, leaving the market in an unstable state." Marcus Tilen, founder of 10X Research, also said, "As long-term holders gradually sell and new funds flow in cautiously, selling and buying forces are barely balanced. ETF fund flows, dollar strength, and the Fed's tone are small changes that can determine Bitcoin's direction." Meanwhile, Jamie Cutz, Real Vision's chief digital asset analyst, cited dollar strength as a key variable that will determine Bitcoin's future direction. Typically, the dollar and Bitcoin move in opposite directions. In addition, companies that strategically store Bitcoin have recently reduced their buying. David Duong, head of Coinbase Research, said, "Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies that accumulate Bitcoin for long-term holdings have virtually disappeared from the market after the large liquidation on the 10th," advising that "large investors remain cautious. The market could be vulnerable in the short term, so position management is necessary." "Bitcoin: Key Is Breaking 112.5k…Risk of Further Decline If 107k Is Lost" Bitcoin has continued its recent correction, trading in the $109,000 range. Ayushi Jindal, a researcher at NewsBTC, said, "Bitcoin fell after failing to hold the $113,500 support," adding, "It is currently trading below $112,000 and short-term weakness continues." She said, "If Bitcoin breaks $112,500, it could rebound to $113,200 and then to $115,000, but if it fails to do so, it risks dropping to the $108,800–$106,500 range." Rakesh Upadhyaya, a researcher at Cointelegraph, said, "Selling intensified as Bitcoin was pushed below the short-term support of $112,347," adding, "If this level is not reclaimed, Bitcoin could retreat to $107,000." He warned that "if that zone collapses, there is a risk of an additional drop to $100,000, and the recent rebound is not supported by increased volume, suggesting the correction phase may continue for some time." Alex Kuptsikevich, senior analyst at FXPro, said, "Bitcoin appears to be trying to confirm support near the long-term support of the 200-day moving average (around $109,400)," noting that "this month it has tested that zone for the 11th time." He added that "the total market capitalization of virtual assets has fallen for four consecutive trading days, and investor sentiment has re-entered the fear zone."
October 31PiCK