'Opaque statistics' topple Bitcoin... "Could fall further"

Major economic indicators gap due to shutdown

Rate cuts unclear after hawkish Fed remarks

DAT purchase slowdown·ETF net outflows compound

"Could fall to $93,000 if stop-loss selling emerges"

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency that had been stagnating, shifted into a sharp decline. Analysts say the gap in economic indicators caused by a prolonged U.S. federal government shutdown, uncertainty over rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), and weakening buying power of digital asset treasury (DAT) firms have been weighing on investor sentiment and increasing downward pressure across the market.

On the 14th (Korea time) on Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, it plunged about 5% from the previous day and fell intraday to $96,712. This is the first time Bitcoin has fallen below $97,000 since May 8. As of 3:05 p.m. that day, Bitcoin had partially recovered its losses and returned to the $97,000 range.

Bitcoin's decline spread to major altcoins. Ethereum (ETH) plunged 10.13% from the previous day, while XRP and Solana (SOL) slid 9.18% and 9.23%, respectively. Top market-cap names such as Binance Coin (BNB), Dogecoin (DOGE), and Cardano (ADA) also fell roughly 5~8%, leaving the broader market unable to avoid a bearish trend.

The primary explanation for this decline is the widening macroeconomic uncertainty. The U.S. federal government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic indicators such as employment and inflation, prolonging an 'in the dark' phase in which the Fed finds it difficult to signal the direction of interest rates — a burden for markets.

A series of hawkish remarks from Fed officials also dampened investor sentiment. Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem both said the previous day that "it is appropriate to keep rates on hold for the time being," tempering hopes for a December rate cut. The CME FedWatch-implied probability of a rate hold rose to 50.4%.

Kim Min-seung, head of Korbit's research center, analyzed, "Because key indicators were not released on time due to the shutdown, the market lost its sense of direction," adding, "As uncertainty grew, profit-taking orders emerged across risk assets, and Bitcoin could not avoid this."

Added to this is credit market risk, which is strengthening downward pressure. Over the past year, the pace of purchases by digital asset treasury (DAT) firms — which had emerged as bitcoin buyers — has rapidly slowed. According to K33 Research, DAT's daily average Bitcoin purchases in November fell 42% month-on-month to 375. The mNAV (company value divided by held assets), a key indicator of DATs' financial soundness, also fell below '1' at most major firms. If mNAV drops below 1, additional fundraising becomes difficult and the ability to accumulate Bitcoin is limited.

Greg Magadini, head of derivatives at Amberdata, warned, "The surge in firms adopting DAT strategies has caused credit demand to expand excessively," adding, "If credit markets tighten, refinancing could be blocked and selling of held coins to repay debt could become unavoidable." He added, "If selling starts at one place, it could spread into panic selling by subordinate DATs."

Net outflows are also widening from exchange-traded funds (ETF) that have underpinned institutional demand. According to Paside Investor, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows on six of nine trading days in November. On the previous day, $867.35 million flowed out, marking the second-largest net outflow on record.

The possibility of further declines for Bitcoin has also been raised. Marcus Tielen, CEO of 10x Research, said, "Since June, about 5.9 million bitcoins have traded around the $100,000 area," and analyzed that "many investors who bought in that range show a risk-vulnerable profile." He went on to say, "If the stay below $100,000 is prolonged, stop-loss selling by buyers at that price level could follow, and if liquidity thins, it could be pushed down to $93,000."