[Analysis] "Bitcoin decline, structural factors rather than investor sentiment… the rally engines have reversed"

The recent decline in Bitcoin (BTC) has been analyzed as a reversal of the market structure itself rather than investor sentiment.

On the 24th (local time), CoinDesk reported that Greg Cipolaro, head of global research at NYDIG, pointed out in a recent report that "the key demand pillars that drove Bitcoin's 2024–2025 rally are all turning the other way."

According to the report, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were a major buying force in the early cycle, but recently have shown a sustained net outflow. According to SosoValue data, net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in November reached $3.55 billion, approaching the largest monthly net outflow since launch ($3.56 billion in February).

Stablecoin indicators are sending the same signal. Total stablecoin supply declined for the first time in months, and USDE has lost nearly half of its issuance since the October 10 liquidation shock. Cipolaro said, "Given that USDE fell to $0.65 on Binance, the sharp drop in supply shows that funds have fully exited the market, not merely gone on 'standby'."

Added to this is the collapse of corporate treasury trading strategies that used the DAT (digital asset treasury) premium. Previously, when a stock traded at a premium to net asset value (NAV), issuing shares to buy Bitcoin was a common strategy, but now the premium has turned into a discount, leading some companies to sell assets or repurchase shares. Recently, Sequans sold its Bitcoin holdings to reduce debt.

Ultimately, Cipolaro assessed that "this correction is not simply selling fear or psychological factors but the result of overlapping structural factors such as capital outflows, weakening ETF and stablecoin demand, and the collapse of corporate financial strategies."