Bitcoin 200-day trend turns down… "Bull market end signal" vs "Not yet" conflicting analyses
Summary
- Bitcoin's 200-day moving average decline and death cross signal are said to raise caution about the possibility of a long-term bear market transition.
- Some experts assess that Bitcoin has already entered a bear market, but others said the situation could vary depending on global risk asset flows.
- In the short term, a rebound is possible if buying pressure consolidates, but they said that falling below the key support of $88,000 could act as a signal of rebound failure.
As Bitcoin's key long-term indicator, the 200-day trendline, turned down, some in the market analyzed that the current bull market has effectively ended.
On the 29th (local time), according to Cointelegraph, crypto analyst Crypto₿irb said, "From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin bull market is over." He cited recent widening price swings, surging trading volume, volatility above the average, increased time spent below the 200-day trendline, and weakening market Breadth overall, warning of the possibility of a bear market in 2026.
Analysts are particularly watching the 200-day trendline turning down (a signal of long-term trend weakening) and the occurrence of a 'death cross' where the 200-day moving average falls below the 50-day moving average (a medium- to long-term bearish transition structure). Both indicators have been used as long-term support levels and as criteria for judging bull and bear markets.
Markus Tilen of 10x Research said, "Without a doubt, Bitcoin has already entered a bear market," diagnosing the current flow as a 'rebound period within a bear market.'
On the other hand, Henrik Anderson, CIO of Apollo Capital, said that while it is true that buying pressure from the Digital Asset Strategic Reserve (DAT) decreased in the first half, "there is no need to immediately interpret this as entry into a bear market." He explained that future direction will be determined by the flow of global risk assets, and that selective approaches by investors have become more important than ever.
A short-term rebound is also possible. Crypto analyst Skew warned on the 4-hour chart that "if buying pressure comes together, short-term momentum is upward," but "if it falls below $88,000 it is a signal of rebound failure." He presented the $90,000–$92,000 range as the key level where the market is currently 'contesting' the medium-term trend.
Bitcoin (BTC) approached $92,000 on Coinbase that day, then slipped slightly and traded around $91,200.
YM Lee
20min@bloomingbit.ioCrypto Chatterbox_ tlg@Bloomingbit_YMLEE
!['Easy money is over' as Trump pick triggers turmoil…Bitcoin tumbles too [Bin Nansa’s Wall Street, No Gaps]](https://media.bloomingbit.io/PROD/news/c5552397-3200-4794-a27b-2fabde64d4e2.webp?w=250)
![[Market] Bitcoin falls below $82,000...$320 million liquidated over the past hour](https://media.bloomingbit.io/PROD/news/93660260-0bc7-402a-bf2a-b4a42b9388aa.webp?w=250)
