Bitcoin (BTC), decoupling from Nasdaq 100 expands…watch for bottom signal

A negative correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the Nasdaq 100 has continued, raising the possibility of a short-term bottom forming in the virtual assets (cryptocurrencies) market.

On the 4th (local time), crypto-focused media CoinDesk reported that the correlation coefficient between the two assets was -0.43.

The outlet said that a correlation coefficient of -0.43 has been observed in past trough periods. According to the outlet, there were cases in 2021, September 2023, and August 2024 when the indicator pointed to a similar level and Bitcoin formed a bottom and then rebounded shortly thereafter.

This time, the price gap has also widened.

The outlet explained that Bitcoin is currently down -27% from its all-time high, while the Nasdaq remains around -2%, widening the gap in declines between the two assets. This is interpreted as a continuation of decoupling in which Bitcoin does not move entirely in the same direction as risk-asset flows.

However, the outlet added that it is difficult to conclude that this decoupling immediately indicates bottom formation. While there are precedents where similar correlation coefficient ranges in the past led to rebounds, it reported that there remains temporal uncertainty as to whether this decline will act as the same signal.

In the market, changes in the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 have been used as an indicator to gauge risk appetite and capital flows. In particular, it was pointed out that if decoupling persists, Bitcoin's independent price movement could strengthen, or conversely, if macro shocks expand again, volatility could increase, so there is a need to watch the correlation coefficient trend for the time being.