JPMorgan says recent Bitcoin correction is not a 'crypto winter'

JPMorgan said there is little evidence that the market structure has deteriorated despite the recent Bitcoin decline, rating the likelihood of a crypto winter as low. Industry experts acknowledged the short-term correction but said it is difficult to view the rally cycle as over.

On the 10th (local time), Decrypt reported that JPMorgan analysts said concerns grew as Bitcoin fell to $81,000 last month, but "this correction is a meaningful decline, not a signal presaging long-term stagnation." Bitcoin is trading around $93,000, and the November price drop turned year-to-date returns negative for the first time since May 2023.

The analysts said short-term overheating after the 2024 U.S. presidential election amplified the correction. Although market capitalization decreased by 20% or more and trading volume slowed, the size of stablecoins has increased for 17 consecutive months, indicating the market base remains intact. The report maintained a positive outlook on the market, saying, "the recent correction does not imply a structural collapse."

This analysis aligns with the view that Bitcoin prices are deviating from the historical four-year halving cycle. On Myriad, the prediction market operated by Dastan, Decrypt's parent company, the probability of a crypto winter arriving by February 2026 was forecast at 6%, down sharply from 16% four days earlier.

Institutions expressed similar views. Jeffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets at Standard Chartered, said, "this cycle is different from the past," adding that "crypto winter may remain in the past." However, the bank lowered its Bitcoin target to $100,000 by the end of 2025 and delayed the $500,000 target to 2030.

An analysis also suggested that increased ETF-based investment enhances price stability. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said, "ETF investors form a more stable holder base, contributing to reduced volatility."