Galaxy Digital "Bitcoin to reach $250,000 the year after next... Next year a 'year of chaos'"

Galaxy Digital set a long-term target of $250,000 (about KRW 360 million) for Bitcoin (BTC). However, it said next year is likely to be a 'period of chaos' in which price volatility will be difficult to predict due to macroeconomic uncertainty.

In a report on the 18th (local time), Galaxy Digital forecasted that "Bitcoin will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027." It said that while a new all-time high (ATH) could still occur next year, it is difficult to predict market direction in the short term.

In fact, the options market presents polar opposite outlooks for next year's Bitcoin price. According to the report, as of the end of June 2026, the probabilities of Bitcoin reaching $70,000 and $130,000 are similarly estimated, and by the end of the year the probabilities of $50,000 and $250,000 are roughly even.

Galaxy Digital diagnosed that "the overall crypto market has already entered a bear market, and Bitcoin has not clearly regained upward momentum." It added that "downside risk will dominate for the time being until Bitcoin definitively reclaims the $100,000–$105,000 range." Adjustments to the pace of AI infrastructure investment, monetary policy, and the U.S. midterm elections in November were cited as macroeconomic factors that increase uncertainty.

A notable point is the structural change in the Bitcoin market. This year, Bitcoin's long-term volatility has shown a structural decline. In particular, in the implied volatility curve of the options market, put option (right to sell) prices have become more expensive than call option (right to buy) prices, which suggests that the market's character, once centered on growth stocks, is shifting to resemble traditional macro asset markets.

The report emphasized that "even if Bitcoin were to correct toward the 200-week moving average, the asset class's maturity and institutional adoption are steadily increasing," and that "the long-term bullish view remains valid."

It went on to say that "2026 could be a somewhat dull year whether Bitcoin remains at $70,000 or rises to $150,000," but that "nonetheless, increased institutional access combined with accommodative monetary policy will further reinforce its position as 'digital gold.'"