Warning of a turning point amid prolonged Bitcoin sideways movement…"$100,000 rebound vs $70,000 correction"

Over the weekend, Bitcoin(BTC) prices continued to trade within a limited box range, prolonging the market's search for direction. However, differing interpretations of technical and on-chain indicators have increased caution about the potential for heightened short-term volatility.

On the 22nd (local time), Cointelegraph reported, "Bitcoin moved within a relatively narrow range over the weekend. It traded for eight consecutive days within a price band of about $5,000 and has failed to form a clear trend," adding, "In the market, observations are spreading that such prolonged sideways movement could lead to an imminent directional breakout."

Some traders place weight on the possibility of a short-term rebound. Cryptoasset (cryptocurrency) analyst Ted Pillows said, "Bitcoin could attempt a 'relief rally' to the $98,000–$100,000 range before entering a renewed downtrend." He explained that the weekly relative strength index(RSI) flow is forming a bearish divergence similar to past late bull-market phases. He added that buying pressure is needed to prevent the 100-week exponential moving average(EMA) from falling below the simple moving average(SMA).

Other market participants offered a more optimistic view. Trader Captain Faibik assessed the recent correction as a "completed stage" and judged that an upward breakout could occur in the short term. Some analysis accounts, applying Elliott wave theory, said Bitcoin could attempt to retest its all-time high and even mentioned a long-term target of around $150,000.

On the other hand, there are also many voices warning of downside risk. CryptoQuant said, "The Bitcoin market structure remains fragile, and a re-test of the $70,000–$72,000 zone, where strong demand formed, is possible." CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnChain pointed to the increasing inflows of Bitcoin to Binance as a burden amid ongoing technical weakness following the breach of the $90,000 level.

He analyzed, "Approximately $1.4 billion worth of Bitcoin moving to exchanges could increase selling pressure," and added, "In that case, an adjustment to the $70,000 demand zone is more likely." The market outlook is that, without clear catalysts for the time being, volatility is likely to expand depending on technical factors and supply-demand changes.