[Analysis] "Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase…on-chain indicators show weakening capital inflows"

An analysis said Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a consolidation phase, unable to form a clear direction as it continues a corrective trend after a rebound.

On the 22nd (local time), CryptoQuant contributor XWIN Research Japan (XWIN Research Japan) said, "The current Bitcoin market is a period in which corrections continue after a rebound, and overall moves in a weak trend," and diagnosed, "Downward pressure still predominates, but a decisive direction has not yet formed."

Recently, the macro environment also appears to be exerting limited influence. On December 19, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, but that decision had already been largely priced in by the market. Kazuo Ueda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, expressed a cautious stance on further rate hikes, so yen strength did not continue, and this is reflected in the leverage structure of the Bitcoin market and regional capital flows.

Among on-chain indicators, the estimated leverage ratio has clearly decreased during the recent downward phase. This means that speculative positions accumulated during the previous upward phase have been largely unwound. Notably, even as price volatility continues, leverage has not expanded again, which suggests that aggressive risk-taking such as yen-based carry trades remains limited.

The Coinbase premium index, which gauges spot demand from the United States, has moved out of an extreme negative zone but has still not settled into a stable positive area. This indicates the absence of strong spot buying centered on US investors. However, the narrowing of the premium's negative gap shows that selling pressure is gradually easing.

XWIN Research Japan analyzed, "For a structural shift to an uptrend, prices need to rise without an expansion of leverage, and at the same time the Coinbase premium index needs to be maintained in positive territory." They explained that this could be a signal confirming that accumulation is being driven by genuine spot demand rather than a speculative rebound. For now, assessments are predominant that, amid ongoing supply-demand adjustments, the recovery phase is also fragile.