Bitwise CIO "Bitcoin will have a gradual rise over the next 10 years... there will be no surge"

Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to show steady gains over the next 10 years, but it will be difficult to record the explosive returns seen in the past. As the market enters a mature phase, volatility is expected to decrease and an institutional-led, gradual upward trend is expected.

On the 27th (local time), Matt Hogan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of Bitwise, said in an interview with CNBC, "Bitcoin will draw a strong but gradual upward curve over the next 10 years," adding, "Now is the time to expect lower volatility and stable performance rather than huge returns." He also added, "2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin."

On that day, on the Binance Tether (USDT) market, Bitcoin was trading around $87,800, about 30% below its all-time high of $126,199 recorded last October. CIO Hogan analyzed the recent bear market as "the result of individual investors quickly exiting the market due to concerns about a decline following the past 'four-year cycle.'"

However, he noted that the magnitude of this decline was limited. "In past cycles prices plunged by 60%, but this time the drop was around 30%," he said, explaining, "This is because steady and cautious buying by institutional investors is supporting the market."

On the other hand, cautious views are also significant. Sebastian Bo, CIO of Reserve One, pointed out, "It is still unclear whether Bitcoin's four-year cycle has ended," and said, "a 30% drop from the peak is quite painful for investors." Well-known trader Peter Brandt also recently warned of further downside, saying "Bitcoin could be pushed down to the $60,000 level in the third quarter of next year."

The prevailing analysis is that the Trump administration's influence on Bitcoin will be limited. CIO Hogan said, "The Trump administration is unlikely to provide much additional upside momentum to Bitcoin prices," and assessed that "regulatory clarity has already been secured." CIO Bo also agreed, saying, "It has already been clarified through the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that Bitcoin is a commodity."