[Analysis] Bitcoin may see a short-term rebound in early 2026…"Long-term upside momentum is limited"

Bitcoin could attempt a short-term rebound in Q1 2026 after a sharp drop at the end of 2025, analysts say. However, even if ETF inflows and improved regulatory conditions support a rebound, analysts say sustained long-term upside is likely limited.

On the 31st (local time), Cryptopolitan reported that Bitcoin was trading at $88,242 at the end of 2025, down about 6% year-to-date and roughly 30% below the all-time high of about $126,000 set in October. Toward year-end, large-scale liquidations and renewed attention to remarks by U.S. President Donald J. Trump on tariffs strengthened risk-off sentiment.

Nonetheless, some institutions saw the possibility of a limited rebound in early 2026. Citi Research said that greater ETF accessibility could spur inflows from retail and institutional money. Alex Saunders, a Citi Research analyst, wrote in a December 18 report that if ETF net inflows reached about $15 billion, they could form short-term price support.

Citi Research set a base 12-month Bitcoin target of $143,000. The optimistic scenario is $189,000 and the pessimistic scenario is $78,000. Saunders added that such inflows are "sufficient for a short-term rally but do not guarantee structural long-term gains."

Corporate holding strategies were also cited as a signal of market stability. Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a JPMorgan strategist, wrote in a December 3 report that Strategy's ratio of Bitcoin holdings to firm value exceeding 1.0 "lowers the likelihood of forced selling of held assets and eases market anxiety." He also viewed positively that Strategy had built a $1.4 billion reserve for dividend and interest payments.

Meanwhile, long-term investors are still watching the traditional four-year cycle theory. CryptoQuant analyzed that long-term holders continue to base judgments on cycle patterns that have historically influenced prices.

There are also views arguing that the cycle theory is weakening. Jaime Leverton, CEO of ReserveOne, said in a CNBC interview, "As institutional support in the U.S. strengthens, the traditional cycle theory is weakening," and added, "If Bitcoin sets a new all-time high next year, it would signify the end of the traditional cycle."