Defense stocks surge on Trump’s ‘dream army’; AI names slide as momentum fades [Bin Nan-sae’s Pre-Market Briefing]

US Market Open Points — Jan. 8, 2026

① US jobs: productivity jumps amid ‘low layoffs, low hiring’

The US labor market is seeing neither a sharp rise in layoffs nor a meaningful pickup in new hiring. Initial jobless claims for the week ended Jan. 3 rose 8,000 from the prior week to 208,000, below Wall Street expectations, while announced US corporate layoffs in December fell 50% from November to 35,553. Meanwhile, unit labor costs in the third quarter fell 1.9% from a year earlier, while labor productivity rose 4.9%—the biggest gain in two years. Analysts say companies are offsetting tariff burdens and rising labor costs through technology and automation investment. Even as the job market cools, the economy’s growth appears to be strengthening—confirming the dual-track ‘K-shaped economy’ and likely deepening the Fed’s dilemma. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressed the Fed, saying, “The final piece of the puzzle for stronger growth is rate cuts.” After the data, the US 10-year Treasury yield jumped nearly 4 bp.

② Trump calls for a ‘dream army,’ seeks 50% boost in defense budget

President Donald Trump argued on Truth Social that to build a “dream army,” the 2027 defense budget should be increased 50% to $1.5 trillion. The call came a day after he urged defense contractors to curb dividends, share buybacks and executive compensation to fund production-facility investment. Shares of defense-related companies including Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Huntington Ingalls, Kratos and Redwire surged. With debate continuing over a possible Greenland purchase despite European pushback following the Trump administration’s military operation in Venezuela, Wall Street expects geopolitics-linked themes to remain important throughout the year. #LMT #NOC #KTOS #HII #LHX #RDW

③ Nvidia falls despite prospects for China approval of H200 purchases

China is expected to approve civilian purchases of Nvidia’s H200 as early as the first quarter, and Nvidia is requiring full prepayment to manage risk, Bloomberg and Reuters separately reported. Still, with a lack of near-term catalysts and momentum—previously lifted by Samsung Electronics’ preliminary fourth-quarter results and CES 2026 events—fading, major semiconductor and tech stocks including Nvidia opened lower. #NVDA #AVGO #MU #SNDK #STX #LRCX

④ Data-center infrastructure race still on

Data-center infrastructure company Applied Digital jumped 15% at the open on results that far exceeded market expectations. It said it is signing contracts on favorable terms—such as 15-year non-cancelable agreements—driven by hyperscalers’ aggressive investment demand, and that data-center construction is accelerating. Delta One, the data-center builder for Nebius, also said it completed a 50MW data center in just seven months, easing industry concerns. #APLD #IREN #MARA #NBIS #CRWV

⑤ Commodity index rebalancing begins

As the 2026 rebalancing of major commodity indexes (BCOM·GSCI) began, prices of metal commodities such as silver, palladium, platinum and copper—along with shares of mining companies that had surged—opened lower for a second day. By contrast, mechanical buying tied to crude oil, whose index weighting had fallen after last year’s sharp drop in oil prices, flowed in and pushed crude higher. Even so, central-bank gold purchases, hedging demand against geopolitical risks and currency depreciation, and demand tied to AI as an industrial input are expected to remain long-term bullish factors for precious and industrial metals. BCA Research advised that “as the need to stockpile key commodities grows in a shifting geopolitical environment, investors should increase strategic allocations to industrial metals.” #NEM #B #AG #CDE #FCX #XOM #COP

#Other notable movers

#BE Bloom Energy shares surged after American Electric Power (AEP) said it signed a roughly $2.65 billion contract to buy Bloom’s solid oxide hydrogen fuel cells (SOFC) at a scale of up to 1GW to meet power demand including from data centers.

#GOOGL Cantor Fitzgerald said Google—now the No. 2 company by market cap after overtaking Apple for the first time since 2019—will be a top beneficiary in the ‘AI synergy’ phase over the next 2–3 years. The firm raised its rating to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’ and lifted its price target to $370 from $310.

#CRWD CrowdStrike said it will acquire identity-management startup SGNL for about $740 million to respond to AI-driven cyberattacks.

#MRK Wolfe Research upgraded Merck to ‘outperform’ from ‘neutral,’ saying it has gained confidence in pathways for the company to continue growing after the Keytruda patent cliff.

#F #GM #STLA Piper Sandler upgraded the ‘Detroit 3’ automakers—Ford, GM and Stellantis—to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral,’ citing a high likelihood of improving performance this year.

#COST Costco shares rose after the company reported December sales that topped Wall Street expectations.

#STZ Constellation Brands, maker of Corona and Modelo, surged after releasing third-quarter results that far exceeded Wall Street estimates.

#AA Alcoa shares fell after JPMorgan cut its rating to ‘underweight,’ citing tariff uncertainty and valuation.

New York — Correspondent Bin Nan-sae binthere@hankyung.com